Toronto Blue Jays at Detroit Tigers Pick & Prediction – 5/23/2024

Toronto Blue Jays vs Detroit Tigers Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 23, 2024
• Venue: Comerica Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Kevin Gausman - Blue Jays
  • Jack Flaherty - Tigers

Betting Odds

Toronto Blue Jays vs Detroit Tigers Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Toronto Blue Jays vs Detroit Tigers Betting Preview

In a matchup scheduled for May 23, 2024, the Detroit Tigers will be hosting the Toronto Blue Jays at Comerica Park. This American League game marks the beginning of the series between these two teams.

Both the Tigers and the Blue Jays are having below-average seasons, with respective records of 23-26 and 22-26. The Tigers' offense ranks as the 23rd best in MLB, while the Blue Jays' offense ranks slightly better at 25th. However, the Blue Jays' batting average is the 5th best in the league, reflecting their proficiency in making contact.

The Tigers are projected to start right-handed pitcher Jack Flaherty, who has a record of 1-3 this season. Despite his record, Flaherty has been performing well, with an ERA of 3.79. According to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, Flaherty is considered the 45th best starting pitcher in MLB, indicating his skill and potential for success.

On the other hand, the Blue Jays are set to start right-handed pitcher Kevin Gausman. Gausman has a record of 2-3 this season, with an ERA of 4.89. Although his ERA is below average, his 3.46 xFIP suggests that he has been unlucky and is likely to perform better going forward. In our Power Rankings, Gausman is ranked as the 74th best starting pitcher in MLB.

In terms of their bullpen, both teams are considered average, with the Tigers ranked 11th and the Blue Jays ranked 12th. This means that both teams have solid relief pitching to rely on.

Looking at the offensive performance, the Tigers have struggled this season, ranking low in team batting average, home runs, and stolen bases. In contrast, the Blue Jays have shown more strength in batting average, ranking 5th in the league. However, their overall offensive ranking is still relatively low.

Taking all the factors into consideration, THE BAT X projects the Tigers to have a 53% win probability, while the betting market implies a win probability of 48%. This suggests that there may be value in betting on the Tigers.

With a game total of 7.5 runs, this matchup is expected to be low-scoring. THE BAT X projects the Tigers to score an average of 4.39 runs, while the Blue Jays are projected to score an average of 4.40 runs.

Quick Takes Toronto Blue Jays:

Over his last 3 outings, Kevin Gausman has experienced a big decline in his fastball spin rate: from 2254 rpm over the entire season to 2143 rpm recently.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his spin rate will likely see improved results.

George Springer has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (90% of the time), but he is projected to bat 6th on the lineup card in this game.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

The Toronto Blue Jays (21.9 K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) are projected to have the 2nd-least strikeout-heavy set of batters on the slate.

• THE BAT X analyzes each player in today's specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Quick Takes Detroit Tigers:

Jack Flaherty has been granted an above-average leash this year, recording 4.8 more adjusted pitches-per-game than the average starter.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Javier Baez's quickness has decreased this season. His 28.15 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last year sits at 27.46 ft/sec now.

• Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can't beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.

Detroit's 91.7-mph exit velocity on flyballs grades them out as the #24 offense in MLB since the start of last season by this metric.

• Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

Game Trends

• The Detroit Tigers have hit the Game Total Over in 17 of their last 27 games (+7.15 Units / 24% ROI)
• The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Team Total Under in 17 of their last 27 games (+6.35 Units / 21% ROI)
• Danny Jansen has hit the Runs Over in 11 of his last 15 games (+8.55 Units / 55% ROI)

Toronto Blue Jays vs Detroit Tigers Prediction

Final Score: Toronto Blue Jays 4.58 vs Detroit Tigers 4.35

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