Toronto Blue Jays at Cleveland Guardians Best Bet – 6/22/2024

Toronto Blue Jays vs Cleveland Guardians Details

• Date: June 22, 2024
• Venue: Progressive Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Jose Berrios - Blue Jays
  • Ben Lively - Guardians

Betting Odds

Toronto Blue Jays vs Cleveland Guardians Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Toronto Blue Jays vs Cleveland Guardians Betting Preview

As the Cleveland Guardians and Toronto Blue Jays prepare to face off on June 22, 2024, at Progressive Field, the stakes are high for both teams. The Guardians are enjoying a stellar season with a 47-26 record, positioning them as strong contenders in the American League. Meanwhile, the Blue Jays, sitting at 35-40, have struggled and need a turnaround to stay relevant.

The Guardians will send right-hander Ben Lively to the mound. Despite being ranked as the #269 starting pitcher in MLB by advanced-stat Power Rankings, Lively has managed a solid 3.02 ERA over 11 starts this season. However, his xFIP of 4.19 suggests he may have been fortunate, and regression is possible. Lively's high flyball rate (38%) could play to his advantage against a Blue Jays lineup that ranks 29th in home runs this season.

On the other side, Toronto will counter with Jose Berrios. Berrios, a below-average pitcher by Power Rankings, has posted a commendable 3.13 ERA in 15 starts. Like Lively, his xFIP of 4.20 indicates some luck has been involved. Berrios faces a Guardians offense that ranks 11th in MLB in home runs and 9th in stolen bases, providing a balanced attack.

The Guardians' offense, ranked 11th in MLB, has shown consistency with a .409 batting average and 1.186 OPS from Will Brennan over the past week. Meanwhile, the Blue Jays' offense, ranking 19th, has been led by Ernie Clement, who boasts a .500 batting average and 1.333 OPS in his last four games.

Cleveland's bullpen, ranked 2nd by advanced-stat Power Rankings, should provide a significant edge over Toronto's 18th-ranked bullpen. This disparity, along with the Guardians' superior season record and balanced offense, makes them the favored team, reflected by their moneyline of -135 and implied win probability of 55%.

Betting markets anticipate a close game, but the Guardians' well-rounded performance this season and recent hot streaks make them a strong bet to come out on top in this American League matchup.

Quick Takes Toronto Blue Jays:

Jose Berrios has added a slider to his repertoire this year and has thrown it 31.6% of the time.

• Adding an extra pitch often leads to more success because it makes the pitcher more unpredictable and keeps hitters guessing more, and change-ups are one of the most effective pitches to use.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has seen a notable gain in his exit velocity this season; just compare his 94.6-mph average to last year's 92.1-mph average.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the offense with the 5th-least strikeout-heavy lineup today is the Toronto Blue Jays with a 21.1% underlying K%.

• THE BAT X analyzes each player in today's specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Quick Takes Cleveland Guardians:

The Cleveland Guardians infield defense grades out as the best out of all the teams today.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Steven Kwan's true offensive skill to be a .310, implying that he has had some very good luck this year given the .119 gap between that figure and his actual .429 wOBA.

• Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.

The Cleveland Guardians bullpen grades out as the 2nd-best in the game, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 21 of their last 28 games (+13.45 Units / 39% ROI)
• The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Team Total Under in 33 of their last 52 games (+12.35 Units / 20% ROI)
• George Springer has hit the Total Bases Under in 15 of his last 18 games (+10.50 Units / 33% ROI)

Toronto Blue Jays vs Cleveland Guardians Prediction

Final Score: Toronto Blue Jays 4.84 vs Cleveland Guardians 5.25

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