Toronto Blue Jays at Cleveland Guardians Best Bet – 6/21/2024

Toronto Blue Jays vs Cleveland Guardians Details

• Date: June 21, 2024
• Venue: Progressive Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Yariel Rodriguez - Blue Jays
  • Carlos Carrasco - Guardians

Toronto Blue Jays vs Cleveland Guardians Betting Preview

The Cleveland Guardians host the Toronto Blue Jays on June 21, 2024, at Progressive Field in what looks to be an intriguing American League matchup. The Guardians are off to a blistering start this season, sporting a 46-26 record, while the Blue Jays are struggling at 35-39.

Carlos Carrasco takes the mound for the Guardians, with an unimpressive track record this season. His 2-6 win/loss record and a 5.80 ERA hint at struggles, though his 4.53 xFIP suggests he's been somewhat unlucky. Carrasco has been a low-strikeout pitcher (16.9 K%) and will face a Blue Jays lineup that is tough to strike out (#3 least strikeouts in MLB). However, his high-groundball rate may neutralize Toronto's lack of power, as the Blue Jays rank 28th in MLB in home runs.

On the flip side, Yariel Rodriguez gets the nod for Toronto. With only four starts this season, he carries a 4.11 ERA but his 5.89 xERA indicates some good fortune thus far. His projections aren't stellar either, with THE BAT X—the leading MLB projection system—forecasting just 4.4 innings, 2.4 earned runs, and 3.3 strikeouts on average. This could be a tough outing against Cleveland, which features the 12th best offense in MLB by advanced metrics and has been strong in home runs (12th) and stolen bases (9th).

The Guardians' bullpen ranks 1st in MLB according to advanced-stat Power Rankings, a stark contrast to the Blue Jays' 18th-ranked bullpen. This disparity could prove pivotal in late-game situations, favoring Cleveland if the game is close.

Will Brennan has been on fire for Cleveland, hitting .417 with three home runs and a 1.292 OPS over the last week. For Toronto, Ernie Clement has been their standout, boasting a .571 average and a 1.571 OPS in the same period.

Given the Guardians' superior bullpen, better overall offense, and the Blue Jays' recent struggles, Cleveland appears to have the edge in this matchup. Keep an eye on how both starters perform, as their outings could significantly influence the game's outcome.

Quick Takes Toronto Blue Jays:

Out of all starters, Yariel Rodriguez's fastball spin rate of 2461 rpm ranks in the 90th percentile this year.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

George Springer has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (67% of the time), but he is projected to hit 6th in the batting order in today's game.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

It may be smart to expect stronger performance for the Toronto Blue Jays offense going forward, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes they are the 10th-unluckiest offense in baseball this year.

• When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Quick Takes Cleveland Guardians:

Compared to the average starter, Carlos Carrasco has been given less leash than the average pitcher this year, throwing an -7.8 fewer adjusted pitches each game.

• Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.

Andres Gimenez's average exit velocity has declined of late; his 85.5-mph seasonal mark has fallen to 82.6-mph over the last two weeks.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Cleveland Guardians' bullpen grades out as the best among all teams in the majors.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 20 of their last 27 games (+12.45 Units / 37% ROI)
• The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Team Total Under in 33 of their last 56 games (+7.90 Units / 12% ROI)

Toronto Blue Jays vs Cleveland Guardians Prediction

Final Score: Toronto Blue Jays 4.81 vs Cleveland Guardians 4.83

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