Toronto Blue Jays at Chicago Cubs Pick & Prediction – 8/16/2024

• Date: August 16, 2024
• Venue: Wrigley Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Yerry Rodriguez - Blue Jays
  • Kyle Hendricks - Cubs

Betting Odds

Toronto Blue Jays vs Chicago Cubs Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Toronto Blue Jays vs Chicago Cubs Betting Preview

As the Chicago Cubs prepare to host the Toronto Blue Jays at Wrigley Field on August 16, 2024, both teams enter this matchup seeking to break out of a disappointing season. The Cubs hold a record of 59-63, while the Blue Jays sit at 57-64, indicating that neither team is performing up to expectations. The Cubs' struggles were highlighted in their last game on August 14, where they fell to the Cleveland Guardians by a score of 6-1. In contrast, the Blue Jays come off a solid 9-2 victory against the Los Angeles Angels, giving them a bit of momentum heading into this interleague contest.

The matchup features two right-handed pitchers: Kyle Hendricks for the Cubs and Yerry Rodriguez for the Blue Jays. Hendricks, who has had a rough season with a 3-10 record and an ERA of 6.60, is projected to pitch about 4.7 innings and allow around 3.0 earned runs today. Despite his struggles, the projections suggest he may be due for better results based on his xFIP of 4.43. Meanwhile, Yerry Rodriguez has also struggled mightily, posting an 8.72 ERA and a projected performance of 2.0 innings today, with an expected 1.5 earned runs.

The Cubs' offense ranks 21st in MLB this season, while the Blue Jays are slightly better at 18th. However, Chicago's Ian Happ has been a bright spot, leading the team with a 0.779 OPS. The projections believe the Cubs could capitalize on Rodriguez's high walk rate, giving them a potentially advantageous matchup against a pitcher who has struggled with control. With both teams' bullpens ranking among the worst, expect a high-scoring affair, with the Game Total set at 10.0 runs, indicating a potentially thrilling contest.

Quick Takes Toronto Blue Jays:

Alejandro Kirk is projected to bat 5th in the lineup in this game, which would be an upgrade from his 81% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this season.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Toronto Blue Jays' bullpen grades out as the 7th-worst among all the teams in MLB.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes Chicago Cubs:

Out of all starting pitchers, Kyle Hendricks's fastball velocity of 87.2 mph grades out in the 0th percentile this year.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Ian Happ has been hot lately, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 90.5-mph to 96.8-mph in the past week's worth of games.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Isaac Paredes pulls a lot of his flyballs (45.9% — 100th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards MLB's 7th-shallowest LF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Chicago Cubs have hit the Team Total Under in 31 of their last 51 games at home (+8.75 Units / 15% ROI)
• The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Over in 34 of their last 48 games (+19.70 Units / 37% ROI)
• George Springer has hit the Total Bases Under in 12 of his last 14 games (+9.60 Units / 48% ROI)

Toronto Blue Jays vs Chicago Cubs Prediction

Final Score: Toronto Blue Jays 5.98 vs Chicago Cubs 6.05

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