Toronto Blue Jays at Chicago Cubs Pick For 8/17/2024

• Date: August 17, 2024
• Venue: Wrigley Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Chris Bassitt - Blue Jays
  • Justin Steele - Cubs

Betting Odds

Toronto Blue Jays vs Chicago Cubs Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Toronto Blue Jays vs Chicago Cubs Betting Preview

As the Chicago Cubs prepare to face the Toronto Blue Jays on August 17, 2024, both teams continue to navigate disappointing seasons, with the Cubs sitting at 60-63 and the Blue Jays at 57-65. After a close 6-5 victory over Toronto yesterday, the Cubs will look to build momentum against a Blue Jays squad that has struggled recently.

The Cubs will send out Justin Steele, who has been solid this year, boasting a 3.16 ERA and ranking as the 15th best starting pitcher in MLB, according to advanced metrics. This season, Steele has been somewhat fortunate, as his 3.77 xFIP suggests he may experience some regression. Nevertheless, his performance is critical for a Cubs team that ranks 21st in offensive production and has a bullpen ranked 28th overall.

On the other hand, the Blue Jays will counter with Chris Bassitt, who has had an average season with a 4.30 ERA. Despite his experience, Bassitt was rocked in his last outing, allowing 7 earned runs over just 4 innings. His struggles come at a time when the Blue Jays offense, ranked 19th overall and particularly weak in power metrics, is desperate for a spark. They rank 27th in home runs, which could be a significant disadvantage against a pitcher like Steele.

With the Cubs currently favored with a moneyline of -165, projections indicate they should score around 4.52 runs, while the Blue Jays are expected to tally approximately 4.08 runs. Given the Cubs' recent success, particularly with Ian Happ leading the charge at the plate, they will look to capitalize on their opportunities and secure another win in this interleague matchup.

Quick Takes Toronto Blue Jays:

Compared to the average hurler, Chris Bassitt has been granted more leash than the average pitcher this year, recording an additional 7.0 adjusted pitches each outing.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Batting Average (.276) suggests that George Springer has experienced some negative variance this year with his .218 actual batting average.

• xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the team with the 3rd-least strikeout-heavy lineup on the slate today is the Toronto Blue Jays with a 19.3% underlying K%.

• THE BAT X analyzes each player in today's specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Quick Takes Chicago Cubs:

Justin Steele's high usage percentage of his fastball (64.4% this year) is likely weakening his results, consider they are generally much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.

• Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so pitchers who rely too heavily on them tend to be less effective than they otherwise would be.

Dansby Swanson has taken a step back with his Barrel% of late; his 8.5% seasonal rate has dropped off to 0% over the past week.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Chicago Cubs' bullpen grades out as the 3rd-worst out of all the teams in the majors.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Under in 63 of their last 118 games (+6.95 Units / 5% ROI)
• The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Over in 47 of their last 76 games (+18.35 Units / 22% ROI)
• Leonardo Jimenez has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 4 games (+12.10 Units / 303% ROI)

Toronto Blue Jays vs Chicago Cubs Prediction

Final Score: Toronto Blue Jays 4.21 vs Chicago Cubs 4.61

Visit the MLB picks and predictions section for the rest of today's games.