Toronto Blue Jays at Boston Red Sox Pick & Prediction – 8/28/2024

• Date: August 28, 2024
• Venue: Fenway Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Chris Bassitt - Blue Jays
  • Brayan Bello - Red Sox

Betting Odds

Toronto Blue Jays vs Boston Red Sox Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Toronto Blue Jays vs Boston Red Sox Betting Preview

As the Boston Red Sox prepare to face the Toronto Blue Jays on August 28, 2024, at Fenway Park, both teams are looking to gain momentum in a tightly contested American League East matchup. The Red Sox currently hold a record of 68-64, putting them in a position of relative strength compared to the Blue Jays, who sit at 65-69. The Red Sox are riding high, having recently secured a win against the Blue Jays in the first two games of their series, with Brayan Bello projected to take the mound for Boston.

Brayan Bello, ranked as the 68th best starting pitcher in MLB, has had a solid season with an 11-6 record, despite an ERA of 4.95 that suggests some bad luck. His Expected Fielding Independent Pitching (xFIP) of 3.87 hints at potential improvement moving forward. Meanwhile, Chris Bassitt of the Blue Jays has struggled to a 9-12 record and holds a 4.41 ERA. While both pitchers are right-handed, Bello’s groundball tendencies may align well against a Blue Jays lineup that ranks 27th in home runs this season.

The Red Sox's offense has been nothing short of impressive, ranking 4th in MLB this season, showcasing depth and power. Their offensive prowess may pose a significant challenge for Bassitt, especially given their high implied team total of 5.12 runs for this game. Conversely, the Blue Jays have found themselves in the middle of the pack offensively, ranking 16th overall, and will need to elevate their performance if they hope to compete.

Given the projections, the Red Sox are favored to win, suggesting that their recent form and home advantage could play a crucial role in this matchup. With Bello’s ability to minimize damage and the Red Sox's explosive offense, they will look to capitalize on their opportunities and secure a series victory.

Quick Takes Toronto Blue Jays:

Compared to the average hurler, Chris Bassitt has been given more leash than the average pitcher this year, tallying an extra 6.2 adjusted pitches each start.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

The Boston Red Sox have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Daulton Varsho stands a good chance of holding the platoon advantage against every reliever all game.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Toronto Blue Jays' bullpen profiles as the 9th-worst among all the teams in MLB.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes Boston Red Sox:

Contrary to popular belief, fastballs are generally a pitcher's least effective pitch. Brayan Bello has used his off-speed and breaking balls 13.6% more often this season (56.7%) than he did last year (43.1%).

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

Tyler O'Neill has been lucky in regards to his batting average this year; his .261 mark is quite a bit higher than his .212 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

• xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.

Jarren Duran has a 97th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (39.8%) and has the good fortune of hitting them in the direction of baseball's shallowest LF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Over in 31 of their last 50 games (+8.95 Units / 15% ROI)
• The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Run Line in 17 of their last 25 games (+10.15 Units / 32% ROI)
• George Springer has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 8 games (+14.60 Units / 183% ROI)

Toronto Blue Jays vs Boston Red Sox Prediction

Final Score: Toronto Blue Jays 4.6 vs Boston Red Sox 5.04

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