Toronto Blue Jays at Atlanta Braves Pick For 9/7/2024

• Date: September 7, 2024
• Venue: Truist Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Jose Berrios - Blue Jays
  • Spencer Schwellenbach - Braves

Betting Odds

Toronto Blue Jays vs Atlanta Braves Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Toronto Blue Jays vs Atlanta Braves Betting Preview

On September 7, 2024, the Atlanta Braves will host the Toronto Blue Jays at Truist Park in what is shaping up to be an intriguing Interleague matchup. The Braves, currently holding a record of 77-64, are enjoying an above-average season, while the Blue Jays sit at 67-75, struggling with below-average performance. The Braves are looking to capitalize on their recent successes, which included a thrilling victory against the Blue Jays in the first game of this series.

Projected starters Spencer Schwellenbach and Jose Berrios will take the mound for their respective teams. Schwellenbach, who ranks as the 21st best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced-stat Power Rankings, has shown promise with a solid ERA of 3.69 and an impressive xERA of 3.07, suggesting he’s been unlucky this season. His projection for today indicates he’ll pitch around 5.3 innings, but he's expected to allow an average of 2.4 earned runs, which is above average.

On the other side, Berrios has a decent ERA of 3.59, yet his xFIP of 4.32 hints at some underlying issues, suggesting he’s been fortunate thus far. He also projects to pitch about 5.4 innings while allowing 3.1 earned runs, which is less favorable than Schwellenbach’s projection.

The Braves boast a stronger bullpen, ranked 7th overall, compared to the Blue Jays, who sit at 23rd. While the Braves offense is ranked 14th, the Blue Jays are at 15th, suggesting an even matchup on that front. However, the projections lean toward the Braves as favorites, who are expected to score 5.10 runs on average compared to the Blue Jays’ 4.47 runs. With the Braves looking to continue their winning momentum and the Blue Jays fighting to find their footing, expect a compelling game in Atlanta.

Quick Takes Toronto Blue Jays:

Jose Berrios has added a slider to his pitch mix this year and has mixed it in 28.5% of the time.

• Adding an extra pitch often leads to more success because it makes the pitcher more unpredictable and keeps hitters guessing more, and change-ups are one of the most effective pitches to use.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has seen a substantial improvement in his exit velocity this season; just compare his 94.1-mph average to last year's 92.1-mph mark.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

The Toronto Blue Jays (19.9 K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) project to have the 4th-least strikeout-prone team of hitters on the slate.

• THE BAT X analyzes each player in today's specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Quick Takes Atlanta Braves:

Out of all SPs, Spencer Schwellenbach's fastball velocity of 95.5 mph is in the 92nd percentile this year.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Marcell Ozuna has been lucky this year, compiling a .400 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .348 — a .052 deviation.

• Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Atlanta Braves' bullpen ranks as the 7th-best among all MLB teams.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 75 of their last 118 games (+30.70 Units / 23% ROI)
• The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Run Line in 24 of their last 34 away games (+11.85 Units / 23% ROI)
• Daulton Varsho has hit the Hits Over in 29 of his last 41 games (+9.10 Units / 14% ROI)

Toronto Blue Jays vs Atlanta Braves Prediction

Final Score: Toronto Blue Jays 4.45 vs Atlanta Braves 4.92

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