Toronto Blue Jays at Arizona Diamondbacks Prediction For 7/13/2024

Toronto Blue Jays vs Arizona Diamondbacks Details

• Date: July 13, 2024
• Venue: Chase Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Jose Berrios - Blue Jays
  • Yilber Diaz - D-Backs

Betting Odds

Toronto Blue Jays vs Arizona Diamondbacks Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Toronto Blue Jays vs Arizona Diamondbacks Betting Preview

The Arizona Diamondbacks (47-47) host the Toronto Blue Jays (43-50) on July 13, 2024, at Chase Field in the second game of their interleague series. The D-Backs are having an average season, while the Blue Jays are struggling with a below-average performance. This matchup features a pair of right-handed starters: Yilber Diaz for the D-Backs and Jose Berrios for the Blue Jays.

Arizona's offense ranks 10th-best in MLB, bolstered by a strong team batting average (8th) and a respectable home run total (14th). In contrast, Toronto's offense has been underwhelming, ranking 21st overall with a particularly poor showing in power categories, ranking 26th in both home runs and stolen bases.

Diaz, who has started just one game this season, boasts an impressive ERA of 1.50###101, though his xFIP of 3.48 suggests he's been fortunate thus far. THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, projects Diaz to struggle, with an average of 4.7 innings pitched, 2.4 earned runs allowed, 4.6 hits, and 1.8 walks. His strikeout projection of 3.9 is also concerning.

Berrios, on the other hand, has been a workhorse for Toronto, starting 19 games with an 8-6 record and a solid 3.76 ERA. However, his xFIP of 4.38 indicates some luck has been involved. Projections suggest Berrios will pitch 5.6 innings, allowing 3.0 earned runs, 6.2 hits, and 1.5 walks, with 4.3 strikeouts.

The D-Backs' bullpen ranks 17th in Power Rankings, which is better than their year-to-date performance, while the Blue Jays' bullpen ranks 23rd, consistent with their struggles this season.

Eugenio Suarez has been on fire for Arizona, hitting .333 with a 1.274 OPS, 3 home runs, and 10 RBIs over the last week. Toronto's Ernie Clement has been equally impressive, batting .375 with a 1.162 OPS and 2 home runs in the same span.

With the D-Backs' strong offense and superior bullpen, they have a slight edge in this closely contested game. Betting markets have the D-Backs' moneyline at -130, implying a 54% win probability. The Blue Jays sit at +110, with a 46% implied win probability. Expect a tight matchup with a high game total of 9.0 runs.

Quick Takes Toronto Blue Jays:

This year, Jose Berrios has introduced a new pitch to his arsenal (a slider), working it in on 30.4% of his pitches.

• Adding an extra pitch often leads to more success because it makes the pitcher more unpredictable and keeps hitters guessing more, and change-ups are one of the most effective pitches to use.

The Arizona Diamondbacks have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Kevin Kiermaier has a strong chance of holding the advantage against every reliever all game.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

The Toronto Blue Jays (19.5 K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) are forecasted to have the 3rd-least strikeout-prone team of hitters on the slate.

• THE BAT X analyzes each player in today's specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Quick Takes Arizona Diamondbacks:

The Arizona Diamondbacks outfield defense grades out as the 2nd-best among every team playing today.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.

Eugenio Suarez is an extreme flyball hitter and squares off against the strong outfield defense of Toronto (#3-best on the slate).

• This player's skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team's defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Arizona Diamondbacks hitters as a unit place 22nd- in the game for power this year when judging by their 91.6-mph exit velocity on flyballs.

• Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

Game Trends

• The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Over in 35 of their last 58 games (+12.00 Units / 19% ROI)
• The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Run Line in 19 of their last 27 away games (+9.15 Units / 22% ROI)
• George Springer has hit the Total Bases Under in 17 of his last 22 games (+9.55 Units / 25% ROI)

Toronto Blue Jays vs Arizona Diamondbacks Prediction

Final Score: Toronto Blue Jays 4.73 vs Arizona Diamondbacks 5.04

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