Texas Rangers vs Tampa Bay Rays Prediction – 6/5/2025

As the Tampa Bay Rays prepare to host the Texas Rangers on June 5, 2025, at George M. Steinbrenner Field, the stakes are evident. The Rays are currently sitting at 32-29, enjoying an above-average season, while the Rangers struggle at 29-33, reflecting a below-average performance. This matchup marks the third game in the series, with Tampa Bay looking to build momentum after their recent victory.

On the mound, the Rays will send out Ryan Pepiot, who has had a mixed season with a 3-5 record and a solid 3.21 ERA. Although Pepiot ranks as the 98th best starting pitcher in MLB, suggesting he’s been somewhat lucky, he projects to throw around 5.4 innings today while allowing 2.9 earned runs. His ability to limit runs will be crucial against a Rangers offense that ranks a dismal 29th in MLB, showcasing significant struggles at the plate.

For Texas, Jack Leiter takes the hill, posting a 4-2 record with a 3.66 ERA. While this might seem respectable, his underlying metrics tell a different story; his 4.93 xFIP indicates he has been less effective than his ERA suggests. Leiter's projected performance is also concerning, as he is expected to pitch only 4.8 innings while allowing nearly 3 earned runs and 1.9 walks, which could spell trouble against a Rays lineup that ranks 17th in overall offensive production.

With the Rays listed as favorites at -150 and an implied team total of 4.87 runs, they have a solid chance to capitalize on the Rangers’ weaknesses. Tampa Bay’s strong bullpen, ranked 12th in MLB, further enhances their prospects for success. Given the current trends and the matchups, the Rays appear well-positioned to secure another win in this critical series.

Quick Takes Texas Rangers:

With a 1.26 discrepancy between Jack Leiter's 6.94 K/9 and his 8.21 estimated true talent K/9 (via the leading projection system, THE BAT), it's safe to say he's been one of the least fortunate pitchers in the league this year when it comes to strikeouts and should perform better in future games.

• Pitchers that are underperforming should be expected to pitch better going forward, which can create value on K prop Overs if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date underperformance.

Extreme flyball bats like Marcus Semien tend to be less successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Ryan Pepiot.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

In today's game, Josh Jung is at a disadvantage facing the league's 5th-deepest CF center field fences given that he hits his flyballs towards center field at a 40.2% rate (98th percentile).

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Tampa Bay Rays:

Among all starting pitchers, Ryan Pepiot's fastball spin rate of 2398 rpm is in the 77th percentile this year.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

In the past week's worth of games, Jonathan Aranda's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 11.2% down to 0%.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Tampa Bay ranks as the #29 club in the majors when it comes to hitting balls between 23° and 34°, the launch angle range that tends to result the most in home runs (13.3% rate this year).

• Balls that are hit too low can't clear the fences, and balls that are hit too high generally don't go far enough and are easy pop flies, but balls hit between 23° and 34° are far more likely to become home runs.

Game Trends

• The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Game Total Under in 24 of their last 39 games (+8.85 Units / 21% ROI)
• The Texas Rangers have hit the Game Total Under in 38 of their last 59 games (+15.80 Units / 24% ROI)
• Josh Jung has hit the Total Bases Under in 9 of his last 10 games (+7.60 Units / 44% ROI)

Texas Rangers vs Tampa Bay Rays Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Texas Rangers 5.05, Tampa Bay Rays 5.15

• Date: June 5, 2025
• Venue: George M. Steinbrenner Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Jack Leiter - Rangers
  • Ryan Pepiot - Rays

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