Texas Rangers vs Tampa Bay Rays Prediction – 6/4/2025

On June 4, 2025, the Tampa Bay Rays will host the Texas Rangers at George M. Steinbrenner Field in the second game of their series. Both teams are looking to gain momentum, with the Rays holding a record of 31-29, indicating an above-average performance this season. In contrast, the Rangers sit at 29-32, reflecting a below-average start.

In their previous matchup, Tampa Bay demonstrated their offensive prowess, pulling off a convincing win, which highlights their capability to score runs. With a lineup that ranks 17th in batting but excels in stolen bases, the Rays have found ways to manufacture runs, even if their overall hitting has been average. Their projected starter, Shane Baz, has been performing well, with a Power Ranking placing him as the 90th best starting pitcher in MLB, despite a below-average ERA of 4.92. Baz's advanced metrics suggest he has been somewhat unlucky, indicated by his 4.00 xFIP, which is more favorable and points towards potential improvement.

On the other hand, Kumar Rocker, scheduled to start for the Rangers, has had a rocky season. With a dismal ERA of 8.10 and a Power Ranking that categorizes him as an average pitcher, his struggles have significantly hindered Texas. His ability to keep hitters at bay has been lacking, as reflected in his projections, which suggest he may only pitch 4.1 innings while allowing a troubling number of hits and walks.

Given the discrepancies in pitching effectiveness and the current standings, the Rays appear poised to capitalize on their stronger roster and home-field advantage. With a betting favorite status marked by a moneyline of -140, the Rays’ projected run total of 4.54 indicates confidence in their offensive capabilities against a Texas team ranked last in bullpen performance. This matchup presents a favorable opportunity for Tampa Bay as they aim for another victory over the struggling Rangers.

Quick Takes Texas Rangers:

Among all starting pitchers, Kumar Rocker's fastball velocity of 95.4 mph grades out in the 86th percentile since the start of last season.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Evan Carter's average exit velocity has dropped off this year; his 86-mph average last year has fallen off to 82.3-mph.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Josh Jung hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (40.2% — 98th percentile) but may find it hard to clear the league's 5th-deepest CF fences today.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Tampa Bay Rays:

Shane Baz has averaged 92.1 adjusted pitches per start this year, checking in at the 76th percentile.

• Pitchers who average more pitches per game are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Typically, bats like Yandy Diaz who hit a lot of flyballs generally hit worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of flyballs such as Kumar Rocker.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Tampa Bay has been the #29 team in MLB when it comes to hitting balls between 23° and 34°, the launch angle range that tends to result the most in home runs (13.3% rate this year).

• Balls that are hit too low can't clear the fences, and balls that are hit too high generally don't go far enough and are easy pop flies, but balls hit between 23° and 34° are far more likely to become home runs.

Game Trends

• The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Game Total Under in 23 of their last 36 games (+10.15 Units / 26% ROI)
• The Texas Rangers have hit the Game Total Under in 40 of their last 60 games (+18.90 Units / 28% ROI)
• Jake Mangum has hit the Home Runs Over in 1 of his last 4 games (+7.00 Units / 175% ROI)

Texas Rangers vs Tampa Bay Rays Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Texas Rangers 4.6, Tampa Bay Rays 4.44

• Date: June 4, 2025
• Venue: George M. Steinbrenner Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Kumar Rocker - Rangers
  • Shane Baz - Rays

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