Texas Rangers vs St. Louis Cardinals Prediction, Odds & Picks – 7/29/2024

Texas Rangers vs St. Louis Cardinals Details

• Date: July 29, 2024
• Venue: Busch Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Nathan Eovaldi - Rangers
  • Andre Pallante - Cardinals

Betting Odds

Texas Rangers vs St. Louis Cardinals Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Texas Rangers vs St. Louis Cardinals Betting Preview

As the St. Louis Cardinals prepare to face the Texas Rangers at Busch Stadium on July 29, 2024, both teams find themselves in a tight matchup. This interleague series opener pits the average-season Cardinals (54-51) against the below-average Rangers (51-55). St. Louis aims to leverage their home-field advantage and bounce back after their last outing, while Texas looks to break out of their slump.

On the mound for the Cardinals is Andre Pallante, whose season has seen a mix of starts and bullpen appearances. Pallante holds a 4-4 record with a respectable 3.92 ERA, enough to place him at #92 in MLB starting pitcher rankings. According to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, Pallante's projections for this game are a mixed bag: He’s expected to pitch 5.6 innings, allowing 2.6 earned runs and striking out 3.2 batters. However, his high hits allowed (5.8) and walks (1.8) raise concerns for St. Louis.

Nathan Eovaldi will take the mound for the Rangers, bringing a stronger season resume with him. Eovaldi, ranked #60 among MLB starters, boasts a 7-4 record and an impressive 3.31 ERA. He averages 5.8 innings per start, with projections indicating he'll allow 2.8 earned runs and strike out 5.2 batters. Similar to Pallante, Eovaldi’s projected hits (5.8) and walks (1.7) are a potential vulnerability.

Offensively, the Cardinals rank 18th in MLB, showing average performance overall but falling short in power and speed, as indicated by their 22nd rank in home runs and 20th rank in stolen bases. In contrast, the Rangers' offense ranks 21st overall, with slightly better standing in home runs (#17) but facing similar challenges in batting average and stolen bases.

The Cardinals' bullpen could be a critical factor, currently ranked as the 6th best by advanced-stat Power Rankings, significantly outperforming the Rangers’ middle-of-the-pack bullpen ranked 16th.

Betting markets see this as a close contest, with the Cardinals' moneyline at -105 and the Rangers at -115, translating to a near 50-50 win probability. The projected game total of 8.5 runs and the current form of both teams suggest that this matchup could come down to which starting pitcher can better limit damage and keep their team within striking distance.

Quick Takes Texas Rangers:

Compared to league average, Nathan Eovaldi has been granted more leash than the typical pitcher this year, throwing an additional 4.0 adjusted pitches each outing.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Robbie Grossman has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this year (68% of the time), but he is projected to hit 7th on the lineup card in this game.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Nathaniel Lowe has a 99th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (42.8%) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of the game's 6th-deepest LF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes St. Louis Cardinals:

Contrary to popular belief, fastballs are typically a pitcher's least effective pitch. Andre Pallante has gone to his fastball a lot this year, though: 69.4% of the time, placing in the 100th percentile.

• Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so pitchers who rely too heavily on them tend to be less effective than they otherwise would be.

The Texas Rangers have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Lars Nootbaar has a strong chance of holding the platoon advantage against every reliever all game.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

The St. Louis Cardinals have done a poor job as a team optimizing their launch angles on their highest exit velocity balls. Their 11.8° figure is among the lowest in baseball this year (#26 overall).

• If you hit the ball hard but straight at the ground, it doesn't do you any good. A player that is skilled at lifting his hardest hit balls into the air stands the best chance of turning them into extra-base hits or home runs.

Game Trends

• The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Game Total Over in 10 of their last 15 games at home (+4.25 Units / 26% ROI)
• The Texas Rangers have hit the Game Total Under in 50 of their last 93 games (+8.50 Units / 8% ROI)
• Nolan Arenado has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 15 games (+17.20 Units / 115% ROI)

Texas Rangers vs St. Louis Cardinals Prediction

Final Score: Texas Rangers 4.6 vs St. Louis Cardinals 4.55

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