Texas Rangers vs St. Louis Cardinals Betting Pick & Preview – 7/30/2024

Texas Rangers vs St. Louis Cardinals Details

• Date: July 30, 2024
• Venue: Busch Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Max Scherzer - Rangers
  • Lance Lynn - Cardinals

Betting Odds

Texas Rangers vs St. Louis Cardinals Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Texas Rangers vs St. Louis Cardinals Betting Preview

The St. Louis Cardinals are set to host the Texas Rangers at Busch Stadium on July 30, 2024, in the second game of their interleague series. Both teams are having average seasons, with the Cardinals holding a 54-52 record and the Rangers at 52-55. This matchup features two right-handed pitchers, Lance Lynn for the Cardinals and Max Scherzer for the Rangers, both of whom are having solid but unspectacular seasons.

Lance Lynn, who has a 5-4 record and a 4.17 ERA, will be on the mound for the Cardinals. Despite his above-average ERA, his 4.91 xERA suggests he has been somewhat fortunate this year and might see a decline in performance. According to advanced-stat Power Rankings, Lynn is the 97th best starting pitcher in MLB, which is average. Lynn is projected to pitch 5.4 innings, allowing 2.7 earned runs, 5.3 hits, and 1.6 walks while striking out 4.9 batters.

On the other side, Max Scherzer, with a 2-3 record and a 3.57 ERA, will take the mound for the Rangers. Scherzer is ranked as the 47th best starting pitcher, indicating he is generally good. Scherzer is projected to also pitch 5.4 innings, allowing 2.5 earned runs, 4.9 hits, and 1.4 walks while striking out 5.3 batters.

The Cardinals' offense ranks 18th in MLB, making it an average unit, while the Rangers' offense ranks 21st, a below-average standing. The Cardinals have shown a bit more power with their 14th rank in team batting average compared to the Rangers' 18th, but both teams struggle in home runs and stolen bases.

However, the Cardinals have a notable edge in the bullpen, ranking 7th in the advanced-stat Power Rankings, compared to the Rangers' 20th. This could be a critical factor in a close game.

THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, projects the Cardinals to score 4.32 runs and the Rangers to score 4.68 runs. Betting markets have the Rangers slightly favored with a -120 moneyline, translating to a 52% implied win probability. However, the Cardinals' moneyline is set at +100, giving them an implied win probability of 48%. THE BAT X projects the Cardinals' win probability at 49%, suggesting there might be some value in backing St. Louis in this evenly matched contest.

Quick Takes Texas Rangers:

Max Scherzer's 91.9-mph velocity on his fastball this year is a sizeable 1.2-mph drop off from last season's 93.1-mph figure.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.

Corey Seager has been hot in recent games, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 91.9-mph to 98.2-mph in the last week's worth of games.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Nathaniel Lowe has a 99th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (42.8%) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of the league's 6th-deepest LF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes St. Louis Cardinals:

Typically, bats like Nolan Arenado who hit a lot of flyballs are generally less successful when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of flyballs such as Max Scherzer.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

St. Louis has been the #3 offense in baseball when it comes to hitting balls between -4° and 26°, the launch angle range that tends to result the most in base hits (44% rate this year).

• Balls that are hit either too high or too low can easy to field, but balls hit between -4° and 26° are far more likely to become base hits.

Game Trends

• The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Game Total Over in 15 of their last 25 games (+3.65 Units / 13% ROI)
• The Texas Rangers have hit the Game Total Under in 49 of their last 90 games (+9.70 Units / 10% ROI)
• Marcus Semien has hit the Runs Over in 16 of his last 21 games (+11.70 Units / 52% ROI)

Texas Rangers vs St. Louis Cardinals Prediction

Final Score: Texas Rangers 4.68 vs St. Louis Cardinals 4.35

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