Texas Rangers vs Seattle Mariners Prediction & Picks 6/16/2024

Texas Rangers vs Seattle Mariners Details

• Date: June 16, 2024
• Venue: T-Mobile Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Dane Dunning - Rangers
  • Logan Gilbert - Mariners

Betting Odds

Texas Rangers vs Seattle Mariners Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Texas Rangers vs Seattle Mariners Betting Preview

As the Seattle Mariners host the Texas Rangers on June 16, 2024, at T-Mobile Park, the Mariners are looking to continue their impressive season. Sitting at 42-31, Seattle is having a strong campaign, while the Rangers, at 33-37, are struggling to stay afloat in the American League West. This third game in the series between these division rivals could be crucial for both teams.

The Mariners will send Logan Gilbert to the mound, and he’s been one of their standout performers this season. With a 3-4 record and a stellar 3.19 ERA, Gilbert is ranked as the 59th best starting pitcher by THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, which indicates he’s been quite effective. Projections from THE BAT X suggest he’ll pitch around six innings, allow 2.2 earned runs, and strike out six batters, all of which are solid numbers that bode well for Seattle.

On the other side, Texas will counter with Dane Dunning, who has had a below-average season with a 4-5 record and a 4.80 ERA. Interestingly, Dunning's xFIP of 3.90 indicates he’s been a bit unlucky and might perform better moving forward. However, projections have him allowing 2.5 earned runs over 5.3 innings, which is average, and with a Rangers bullpen ranked 19th, they’ll need more than just a decent start from Dunning to secure a win.

Offensively, the Mariners have their strengths and weaknesses. While they rank 23rd in overall offensive talent and 28th in batting average, they have shown power, ranking 7th in home runs. Dominic Canzone has been a standout lately, hitting .417 with a 1.250 OPS over the last week. The Rangers, meanwhile, rank 19th in offensive talent, 17th in batting average, and 18th in home runs, with Josh H. Smith hitting .455 with a 1.117 OPS over the last week.

With Seattle being the betting favorite at -140, they have an implied win probability of 56%. Given Gilbert’s strong season and the Mariners’ overall performance, it’s reasonable to back them in this matchup. The game total is set at a low 7.5 runs, reflecting the quality pitching expected. Seattle looks to continue their push in the AL West, and this game could be another step in securing their playoff aspirations.

Quick Takes Texas Rangers:

Dane Dunning has averaged 14.8 outs per GS this year, checking in at the 19th percentile.

• A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.

It may be best to expect improved performance for the Texas Rangers offense the rest of the season, given that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes they are the 9th-unluckiest offense in baseball this year.

• When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Quick Takes Seattle Mariners:

Logan Gilbert's higher usage rate of his secondary pitches this season (67.3% compared to 57.9% last year) should work in his favor since they are typically much more effective than fastballs.

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

Luke Raley's 13.2% Barrel% (a reliable standard to measure power) ranks in the 89th percentile since the start of last season.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Seattle Mariners' bullpen ranks as the 7th-worst among all the teams in MLB.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Under in 22 of their last 33 games at home (+10.70 Units / 29% ROI)
• The Texas Rangers have hit the Game Total Under in 34 of their last 56 games (+13.35 Units / 22% ROI)
• Josh H. Smith has hit the Singles Over in 18 of his last 24 games (+13.75 Units / 56% ROI)

Texas Rangers vs Seattle Mariners Prediction

Final Score: Texas Rangers 3.65 vs Seattle Mariners 4.2

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.