Texas Rangers vs Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction – 6/22/2025

On June 22, 2025, the Pittsburgh Pirates will host the Texas Rangers at PNC Park for the third game in their interleague series. The Rangers edged the Pirates in yesterday's matchup, adding another loss to Pittsburgh's frustrating season. Currently, the Pirates sit at 30-48, while the Rangers hold a 38-39 record, making this a battle between a struggling team and one that is treading water.

The Pirates will likely send Bailey Falter to the mound, who has shown flashes of effectiveness with a solid ERA of 3.49 but ranks as the 214th best starting pitcher in MLB. This suggests he has been fortunate this season, as his 4.64 xFIP indicates he may not sustain this success. Falter projects to pitch 5.1 innings today, allowing about 3.1 earned runs, which aligns with his overall performance.

Opposing Falter will be Jack Leiter, who has had a mixed season with a 4.40 ERA in 12 starts. His 5.21 xERA points to potential struggles ahead, as he has been fortunate as well. Leiter is a low-strikeout pitcher facing a Pirates offense that ranks 5th in strikeouts, which may give him an edge. However, with the Pirates carrying the 30th best offense in MLB, they are likely to struggle against Leiter's low-flyball approach.

Despite their poor offensive rankings, the Pirates do excel in stolen bases, ranking 5th overall. If they can capitalize on this strength and exploit any weaknesses in the Rangers' defense, they could turn the tide. The projections for this matchup suggest a close game, with both teams having an implied run total of 4.50. Given the Pirates’ home field advantage and the volatility in starting pitching performances, they may just surprise the Rangers in this matchup.

Quick Takes Texas Rangers:

Among all SPs, Jack Leiter's fastball velocity of 96.7 mph ranks in the 96th percentile this year.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Jonah Heim has struggled with his Barrel% lately; his 5.7% seasonal rate has lowered to 0% in the last two weeks' worth of games.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

It may be sensible to expect improved performance for the Texas Rangers offense in the future, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes they are the 2nd-unluckiest offense in the majors this year.

• When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Quick Takes Pittsburgh Pirates:

Bailey Falter is an extreme flyball pitcher (37.6% FB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) and is fortunate enough to be pitching in the #27 HR venue in the majors in this matchup.

• This pitcher's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Isiah Kiner-Falefa's average exit velocity has declined in recent games; his 84.9-mph seasonal figure has dropped to 78.7-mph in the past 14 days.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Pittsburgh's 89.1-mph average exit velocity this year is among the worst in Major League Baseball: #24 overall.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Game Trends

• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 48 of their last 75 games (+18.65 Units / 21% ROI)
• The Texas Rangers have hit the Game Total Under in 47 of their last 73 games (+19.15 Units / 24% ROI)
• Ke'Bryan Hayes has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 6 games (+6.00 Units / 63% ROI)

Texas Rangers vs Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Texas Rangers 5.53, Pittsburgh Pirates 5.53

• Date: June 22, 2025
• Venue: PNC Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Jack Leiter - Rangers
  • Bailey Falter - Pirates

Get daily MLB picks here.