Texas Rangers vs Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction – 6/21/2025

As the Pittsburgh Pirates prepare to host the Texas Rangers on June 21, 2025, both teams find themselves struggling to find consistency this season. The Pirates currently sit at 30-47, while the Rangers are slightly better at 37-39, but neither team is in contention for a playoff spot. In their most recent matchup, the Pirates fell to the Rangers, adding to their disappointing season.

Pittsburgh will send Mitch Keller to the mound, who has had a rough year with a 1-9 record despite a respectable ERA of 4.08. The advanced projections suggest he has been somewhat unlucky, as his 3.29 FIP indicates he could perform better moving forward. However, Keller's struggles are compounded by a Pirates offense that ranks 29th in the league, particularly poor in home runs, which could hinder his chances of securing a win.

On the other side, Texas will counter with Kumar Rocker, who has had his own troubles, posting a 7.31 ERA. Despite this, he ranks 88th among starting pitchers, indicating he may have the potential to turn things around. Rocker's projections suggest he could allow an average of 2.3 earned runs over 4.8 innings, which, while not stellar, could be enough against a struggling Pirates lineup.

Both teams have underwhelming offensive ranks, with the Pirates at 29th and the Rangers at 28th. However, the Rangers have shown some life with their stolen base game, ranking 9th in the league, which could be a crucial factor today. The game total is set at 8.5 runs, indicating expectations for a low-scoring affair. With both teams evenly matched on the moneyline at -110, this game could be a close one, but the projections lean slightly in favor of the Rangers based on their overall performance and Keller's challenges on the mound.

Quick Takes Texas Rangers:

Because flyball pitchers hold a big advantage over flyball batters, Kumar Rocker and his 45.2% underlying FB% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT) finds himself in a good spot today matching up with 2 opposing FB batters.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Extreme groundball bats like Marcus Semien generally hit better against extreme flyball pitchers like Mitch Keller.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

The Texas Rangers have been the 2nd-unluckiest offense in MLB this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to positively regress in the future

• When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Quick Takes Pittsburgh Pirates:

Mitch Keller's slider rate has spiked by 9.8% from last season to this one (25.1% to 34.9%) .

• Because sliders are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.

Ke'Bryan Hayes has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (50% of the time), but he is projected to bat 8th in the lineup in this game.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Pittsburgh Pirates hitters collectively rank near the bottom of the majors this year ( 7th-worst) when it comes to their 89.1-mph average exit velocity.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Game Trends

• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 47 of their last 74 games (+17.55 Units / 20% ROI)
• The Texas Rangers have hit the Game Total Under in 40 of their last 59 games (+19.90 Units / 30% ROI)
• Oneil Cruz has hit the RBIs Under in his last 4 games (+4.00 Units / 39% ROI)

Texas Rangers vs Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Texas Rangers 5.22, Pittsburgh Pirates 4.45

• Date: June 21, 2025
• Venue: PNC Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Kumar Rocker - Rangers
  • Mitch Keller - Pirates

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