Texas Rangers vs Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction – 6/20/2025

The Pittsburgh Pirates will host the Texas Rangers on June 20, 2025, in what promises to be a compelling Interleague matchup. Both teams are having underwhelming seasons, with the Pirates sitting at 30-46 and the Rangers at 36-39. The Pirates' struggles have been evident, especially with their offense ranking as the 29th best in MLB, including being dead last in home runs. Meanwhile, the Rangers are not faring much better, ranking 28th in overall offensive performance.

In this game, the Pirates will send Michael Burrows to the mound, while the Rangers counter with elite right-hander Jacob deGrom. Burrows has been average this season, ranking 115th among starting pitchers, but he is projected to only pitch around 4.5 innings today, allowing approximately 2.5 earned runs, and striking out 4.4 batters. His peripherals suggest he could improve, but facing a hitter-heavy lineup like the Rangers could pose a challenge.

On the other hand, Jacob deGrom has been a standout, ranking 12th among pitchers and boasting an impressive ERA of 2.19. His projections indicate he will pitch around 5.4 innings while allowing 2.2 earned runs. However, the Rangers' offense has also struggled, ranking 28th overall, which could give Burrows a fighting chance if he can limit damage.

The Pirates have shown some life with their best hitter performing well recently, recording a .350 batting average over the last week. However, with a low implied team total of just 3.22 runs, the odds are stacked against them. The Rangers, favored with a moneyline of -185, have a higher implied team total of 4.28 runs, making them the likely team to secure a win in this matchup.

Quick Takes Texas Rangers:

Jacob deGrom will hold the platoon advantage against 6 opposing bats in today's game.

• Right-handed pitchers perform better against right-handed hitters (and the same for lefties). Having this advantage against a lot of opposing hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Jonah Heim has struggled with his Barrel% of late; his 5.8% seasonal rate has dropped to 0% in the past 14 days.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

The Texas Rangers bullpen projects as the 4th-worst in Major League Baseball, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes Pittsburgh Pirates:

The Pittsburgh Pirates infield defense projects as the strongest out of all the teams on the slate today.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.

Isiah Kiner-Falefa's average exit velocity has declined in recent games; his 85.2-mph seasonal average has dropped to 78.3-mph in the past two weeks.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Andrew McCutchen pulls a lot of his flyballs (34.8% — 87th percentile) and will be challenged by baseball's 11th-deepest LF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 40 of their last 63 games (+15.15 Units / 20% ROI)
• The Texas Rangers have hit the Game Total Under in 47 of their last 72 games (+20.25 Units / 25% ROI)
• Jake Burger has hit the Runs Under in his last 6 games (+6.00 Units / 53% ROI)

Texas Rangers vs Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Texas Rangers 4.99, Pittsburgh Pirates 3.97

• Date: June 20, 2025
• Venue: PNC Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Jacob deGrom - Rangers
  • Michael Burrows - Pirates

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