Texas Rangers vs Oakland Athletics Prediction, Odds & Picks – 9/26/2024

• Date: September 26, 2024
• Venue: Oakland Coliseum
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Kumar Rocker - Rangers
  • J.T. Ginn - Athletics

Betting Odds

Texas Rangers vs Oakland Athletics Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Texas Rangers vs Oakland Athletics Betting Preview

The Oakland Athletics and Texas Rangers square off in an American League West matchup on September 26, 2024, at the Oakland Coliseum. Both teams enter the game with seasons that fall below expectations, with the Athletics at 68-90 and the Rangers at 75-83. While neither team is contending for the playoffs, this game provides an opportunity for both to end their seasons on a positive note.

On the mound, the Athletics will start J.T. Ginn, a right-hander ranked as the 158th best starting pitcher in MLB. Despite his 4.40 ERA, Ginn's 3.71 xFIP suggests some bad luck this year, indicating he might perform better than his numbers suggest. The Rangers counter with Kumar Rocker, ranked 28th among starting pitchers. His 2.57 ERA has been stellar, though his 4.04 xFIP indicates he might have been a bit fortunate.

Offensively, the Athletics boast the 7th most home runs in MLB, a bright spot for a team ranked 21st overall in offense. The Rangers' offense, however, ranks 25th, struggling in several areas, including home runs where they sit at 21st. Notably, Shea Langeliers has been hot for Oakland, hitting .417 with a 1.117 OPS over the past week. For Texas, Jonah Heim has been productive, boasting a .357 average and a home run in his last four games.

Both bullpens are relatively solid, with Oakland's relief corps ranking 10th and Texas's at 13th. THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, gives the Athletics a slight edge with a 51% chance of winning, projecting them to score 3.75 runs compared to the Rangers' 3.91. The betting lines reflect a close contest, with both teams at -110 on the moneyline. Expect a tight game as these AL West rivals vie for a late-season victory.

Quick Takes Texas Rangers:

When assessing his strikeout skill, Kumar Rocker projects as the 17th-best SP in the game right now, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.

Nathaniel Lowe has seen a substantial increase in his exit velocity of late; just compare his 92.4-mph average in the past week's worth of games to his seasonal 88.8-mph figure.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

The Texas Rangers have been the 4th-unluckiest offense in Major League Baseball this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to hit better in future games

• When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Quick Takes Oakland Athletics:

J.T. Ginn turned in a great performance in his last outing and gave up 1 ER.

• A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.

Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected HR per 600 plate appearances (23.0) provides evidence that Lawrence Butler has had some very good luck this year with his 30.5 actual HR/600.

• xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Oakland Athletics' bullpen grades out as the 10th-best out of all teams in the majors.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Oakland Athletics have hit the Moneyline in 42 of their last 84 games (+9.00 Units / 10% ROI)
• The Texas Rangers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 31 of their last 45 games (+16.50 Units / 30% ROI)
• Marcus Semien has hit the Hits Under in 24 of his last 46 games (+9.05 Units / 15% ROI)

Texas Rangers vs Oakland Athletics Prediction

Final Score: Texas Rangers 3.88 vs Oakland Athletics 3.72

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