Texas Rangers vs New York Yankees Prediction, Preview, & Odds – 8/9/2024

Texas Rangers vs New York Yankees Details

• Date: August 9, 2024
• Venue: Yankee Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Cody Bradford - Rangers
  • Carlos Rodon - Yankees

Betting Odds

Texas Rangers vs New York Yankees Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Texas Rangers vs New York Yankees Betting Preview

On August 9, 2024, the New York Yankees will host the Texas Rangers at Yankee Stadium in the first game of their series. The Yankees, standing at 68-48, are enjoying a strong season, currently sitting in a solid position within the American League. Meanwhile, the Rangers, with a record of 54-61, find themselves struggling and are not in contention for a playoff spot.

Going into this game, the Yankees and Rangers have both dropped two games in a row. The Yankees boast the best offense in MLB, backed by their power-hitting capabilities, including 149 home runs this year, ranking them 2nd overall. This will put considerable pressure on Texas's Cody Bradford, who is projected to struggle against such a potent lineup.

Bradford, a left-handed pitcher making only his 5th start of the year, has shown some promise with a 3-0 record and a respectable 3.96 ERA. However, he faces a daunting challenge against a Yankees offense that ranks #1 in walks drawn, which could be complicated by Bradford's good control. The projections estimate that he will pitch just 4.2 innings today, which is concerning against a lineup that can capitalize on mistakes.

On the other side, Carlos Rodon, who has had an above-average season with a 12-7 record and a 4.37 ERA, will take the mound for New York. Although Rodon’s ERA might suggest mediocrity, his 3.81 SIERA indicates he has been unlucky and may improve as the season progresses.

With the Yankees favored in this matchup, the odds favor them to cover a high implied team total of 4.74 runs, while the Rangers are projected for a mere 3.76 runs. This matchup appears to heavily favor the Yankees, especially given their offensive prowess against a relatively inexperienced Bradford.

Quick Takes Texas Rangers:

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) expects Cody Bradford to be on a pitch count in this game, projecting a maximum of 74 pitches.

• A pitcher who is on a pitch count is likely to be pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.

Corey Seager is apt to have an advantage against every reliever throughout the game, since the bullpen of the New York Yankees has just 1 same-handed RP.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Texas Rangers' bullpen projects as the 6th-best out of all MLB teams.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes New York Yankees:

Carlos Rodon's higher usage rate of his secondary pitches this year (50.3% compared to 39.6% last year) figures to work in his favor consider they are typically much more effective than fastballs.

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

Juan Soto is an extreme groundball hitter and matches up with the weak infield defense of Texas (#28-worst on the slate).

• This player's skill set matches up well with the opposing team's defensive weakness, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Gleyber Torres has an 87th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.7%) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the league's 7th-shallowest RF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Over in 42 of their last 64 games (+19.50 Units / 27% ROI)
• The Texas Rangers have hit the Game Total Over in 11 of their last 15 games (+6.50 Units / 39% ROI)
• Nate Lowe has hit the Walks Over in 11 of his last 16 games (+9.45 Units / 59% ROI)

Texas Rangers vs New York Yankees Prediction

Final Score: Texas Rangers 4.53 vs New York Yankees 5.31

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