Texas Rangers vs New York Yankees Prediction, Preview, & Odds – 8/11/2024

Texas Rangers vs New York Yankees Details

• Date: August 11, 2024
• Venue: Yankee Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Andrew Heaney - Rangers
  • Marcus Stroman - Yankees

Betting Odds

Texas Rangers vs New York Yankees Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Texas Rangers vs New York Yankees Betting Preview

On August 11, 2024, the New York Yankees will host the Texas Rangers at Yankee Stadium in what promises to be a compelling matchup. The Yankees are riding high in the standings with a record of 69-49, showcasing their prowess as they currently sit well above .500. Conversely, the Rangers are struggling at 55-62, reflecting a disappointing season. The Yankees offense is ranked 1st in MLB and they pose a significant challenge to any opposing pitcher.

Marcus Stroman is projected to take the mound for New York, entering the game with a Win/Loss record of 7-6 and an ERA of 4.10. While his advanced stats indicate he might be due for some regression, he has proven to be a reliable starter, averaging 5.7 innings pitched per game. He faces Andrew Heaney, who has had a tough season with a 4-11 record despite a respectable ERA of 3.98. Heaney’s high flyball rate could be a concern against a Yankees lineup that has already hit 149 home runs this season, ranking 2nd in the league.

The Yankees’ offense is not only powerful but also patient, leading MLB in walks. However, Heaney’s low walk rate may limit the Yankees' ability to capitalize on this strength. With a high Game Total of 9.0 runs set for this matchup, the projections favor a high-scoring affair, particularly with the Yankees' implied team total of 4.85 runs.

In terms of betting, New York holds a moneyline of -145, making them the favorite for this game. Given their offensive capabilities and Stroman's potential to deliver a solid outing, the Yankees appear well-positioned to secure a victory against the struggling Rangers.

Quick Takes Texas Rangers:

It may come as a surprise, but fastballs are generally a pitcher's least effective pitch. Andrew Heaney has used his secondary pitches 5.5% more often this season (47.8%) than he did last season (42.3%).

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

Adolis Garcia has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (95% of the time), but he is projected to hit 7th in the lineup in this matchup.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

The Texas Rangers bullpen projects as the 3rd-best in the game, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes New York Yankees:

Marcus Stroman's fastball velocity has dropped 1.5 mph this year (89.4 mph) below where it was last year (90.9 mph).

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.

Juan Soto has seen a sizeable gain in his exit velocity recently; just compare his 98.5-mph average over the last week to his seasonal 94.7-mph figure.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Gleyber Torres has an 88th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.9%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them out towards MLB's 7th-shallowest RF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Over in 49 of their last 78 games (+18.80 Units / 22% ROI)
• The Texas Rangers have hit the Game Total Over in 18 of their last 28 games (+8.00 Units / 26% ROI)
• Alex Verdugo has hit the Hits Over in 13 of his last 16 games (+9.65 Units / 33% ROI)

Texas Rangers vs New York Yankees Prediction

Final Score: Texas Rangers 4.7 vs New York Yankees 5.29

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.