Texas Rangers vs New York Yankees Prediction – 5/21/2025

As the New York Yankees prepare to host the Texas Rangers on May 21, 2025, they come off a strong showing in their last matchup, where they secured a decisive victory. Currently, the Yankees sit at 28-19, boasting the 2nd best offense in MLB, whereas the Rangers trail at 25-24, with a subpar 27th ranking in offensive performance.

The Yankees are set to start Ryan Yarbrough, who has an unimpressive record of 1-0 and ranks as the 197th best starting pitcher, per advanced metrics. Despite a decent ERA of 3.70, Yarbrough's projections indicate he may struggle, averaging only 4.1 innings pitched and allowing 2.1 earned runs today. In contrast, Jacob deGrom takes the mound for the Rangers, an elite option ranked 12th in MLB with a stellar ERA of 2.29 and a solid win-loss record of 4-1.

Yarbrough's high walk rate of 9.8% meets a Rangers offense that is the 3rd least patient in the league, potentially giving the pitcher an edge. However, with the Yankees hitting 81 home runs this season—leading the league—their powerful lineup may capitalize on deGrom's flyball tendencies.

The Yankees' bullpen ranks 6th overall, which is a significant advantage against a Rangers bullpen that sits at the bottom of the league. With the game total set at a low 7.5 runs, betting markets reflect a close contest, but the Yankees' offensive firepower and home-field advantage could tip the scales in their favor. Betting enthusiasts should consider the Yankees' superior metrics when assessing this matchup.

Quick Takes Texas Rangers:

Out of all starting pitchers, Jacob deGrom's fastball velocity of 96.4 mph ranks in the 95th percentile this year.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Kyle Higashioka is an extreme flyball hitter and faces the weak outfield defense of New York (#2-worst on the slate).

• This player's skill set matches up well with the opposing team's defensive weakness, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

The Texas Rangers bullpen projects as the worst in MLB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes New York Yankees:

Ryan Yarbrough is an extreme flyball pitcher (38.2% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) and will be disadvantaged pitching in the #6 HR venue in MLB in this matchup.

• This pitcher's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Trent Grisham has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this season (96% of the time), but he is penciled in 1st on the lineup card in today's game.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

Anthony Volpe has an 89th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.7%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's 7th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Under in 20 of their last 32 games (+7.97 Units / 23% ROI)
• The Texas Rangers have hit the Team Total Under in 31 of their last 46 games (+14.05 Units / 26% ROI)
• Adolis Garcia has hit the RBIs Under in 8 of his last 9 games (+6.80 Units / 39% ROI)

Texas Rangers vs New York Yankees Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Texas Rangers 4.49, New York Yankees 4.12

• Date: May 21, 2025
• Venue: Yankee Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Jacob deGrom - Rangers
  • Ryan Yarbrough - Yankees

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