Texas Rangers vs New York Yankees Pick – 5/22/2025

The New York Yankees and the Texas Rangers meet for the third game of their series on May 22, 2025, after the Yankees took the previous matchup. Currently, the Yankees sit at 29-19, enjoying a strong season, while the Rangers are at a .500 record of 25-25, reflecting an average campaign. With the Yankees’ offense ranked 2nd in MLB, they have been a powerhouse, especially with 83 home runs, the most in the league.

Carlos Rodon is projected to take the mound for the Yankees. He has had a solid year with a 5-3 record and a 3.17 ERA, ranking him 59th among starting pitchers according to advanced stats. However, he faces a challenging matchup against the Rangers, who rank 26th in offense. Rodon is known for his high walk rate (10.2 BB%), but he may find some advantage against a Rangers lineup that struggles to draw walks.

On the other side, Nathan Eovaldi is expected to start for Texas. Eovaldi has been impressive this season, boasting a 4-2 record and an excellent 1.61 ERA, placing him 37th among MLB starters. He has a tendency to induce ground balls (51% GB rate), which could be crucial against the Yankees’ power-hitting lineup. However, Eovaldi's projections suggest he may struggle with hits allowed, averaging 4.8 per game, which could be a concern.

With the Yankees favored at -160 and an implied team total of 4.13 runs, they look to capitalize on their offensive prowess against a struggling Rangers bullpen ranked dead last. This matchup presents an opportunity for New York to solidify their standing as they aim for a strong finish to the season.

Quick Takes Texas Rangers:

Despite conventional wisdom, fastballs are generally a pitcher's least effective pitch. Nathan Eovaldi has used his secondary pitches 8.5% more often this year (71.2%) than he did last season (62.7%).

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

Josh Jung has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this year (66% of the time), but he is projected to bat 3rd in the lineup today.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Texas Rangers' bullpen profiles as the worst out of all the teams in the game.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes New York Yankees:

Carlos Rodon's 93.7-mph velocity on his fastball this season is a notable 1.9-mph decline from last season's 95.6-mph figure.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.

Ben Rice has been hot of late, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 94.3-mph to 98.7-mph in the past two weeks.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

In today's game, Anthony Volpe is at a disadvantage facing the league's 6th-deepest CF center field fences given that he hits his flyballs towards center field at a 39.1% rate (89th percentile).

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Under in 11 of their last 15 games at home (+6.62 Units / 40% ROI)
• The Texas Rangers have hit the Game Total Under in 26 of their last 35 games (+17.10 Units / 44% ROI)
• Aaron Judge has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 17 of his last 25 games (+8.00 Units / 28% ROI)

Texas Rangers vs New York Yankees Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Texas Rangers 4.11, New York Yankees 4.29

• Date: May 22, 2025
• Venue: Yankee Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Nathan Eovaldi - Rangers
  • Carlos Rodon - Yankees

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