Texas Rangers vs New York Mets Prediction – 9/14/2025
Playoff stakes hang over Citi Field on Sunday as Texas visits New York for the series finale. Texas has surged back into the picture behind elite run prevention and a bullpen that has stabilized in September, while New York leans on a strong home record and a star-laden heart of the order to try and reverse their recent struggles. With injuries thinning Texas’ lineup and New York breaking in impressive young arms, pricing has hovered near even money and the total has sat in the mid-7s. Here, I break down this game and give you my Rangers vs Mets prediction for Sunday afternoon.
Our Rangers vs Mets Pick
- Pick: Rangers moneyline
- Confidence: ★★★★☆
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Game Snapshot
- Teams: Texas Rangers vs New York Mets
- Date & Time: Sunday, September 14, 2025, 1:40 PM ET
- Starting Pitchers: Jacob Latz vs Nolan McLean
- Stadium: Citi Field, Flushing, Queens, NY
- Broadcast: MLB Network
Key Storylines
- Texas arrives hot after a sweep of Milwaukee and wins in the first two games of this series.
- The Mets have lost eight games in a row and are now tied for the final Wild Card spot in the National League. A win today would be huge for their playoff chances.
- New York’s home record remains elite at 45-29, and the lineup features Juan Soto and Pete Alonso to provide power threats.
- Rookie Nolan McLean has been outstanding for New York with a 1.42 ERA through 31.2 IP, giving the Mets a high-upside arm in front of a bullpen anchored by Edwin Díaz.
Pitching matchup
Jacob Latz gives Texas length from the left side after transitioning from relief to a starting role this summer. He enters with a 2.91 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 66 strikeouts, and 32 walks over 74.1 innings. His run suppression stems from limiting homers to 6. His attack locations have been conservative, yielding soft contact but a modest strikeout ceiling. The concern here is New York’s right-handed power. Alonso lines up well against elevated four-seamers and back-foot sliders if Latz falls behind in counts.
Nolan McLean has delivered impact innings for New York. He is 4-1 with a 1.42 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, 33 strikeouts, and 10 walks in 31.2 innings with just one homer allowed. He pounds the zone with a mid-90s fastball and a power slider that misses barrels. Texas has handled righties better than lefties overall this season, but with the Rangers missing some key hitters, the swing plane mix of Josh Smith, Wyatt Langford, and Jonah Heim is lighter on thump. McLean’s strikeout prop is live if his pitch count cooperates.
Recent team streaks
- The Rangers have won six games in a row.
- New York has dropped eight straight games coming into today’s play.
Best Player Props
| Prop | Suggested Play |
|---|---|
| Nolan McLean Strikeouts | Over 5.5 |
| Pete Alonso Total Bases | Over 1.5 |
| Juan Soto Total Bases | Under 1.5 |
Betting Trends & H2H
- The Rangers are 2-0 against the Mets so far this season.
- The Mets have been held to five runs over the first two games of this series.
- This is the final matchup between Texas and New York for the 2025 regular season.
Rangers vs Mets Model Projection
Score Projection: Rangers 4 – Mets 2
Win Probability: Rangers 54%, Mets 46%
Final Thoughts
The Mets have been very good at home throughout this season. But they are also playing their worst baseball of the year here in September. New York’s recent struggles should continue today against a respectable Rangers starter in Latz. I’ll go with Texas to secure the win and the sweep here and to cast further doubt on the Mets’ playoff chances.
