Texas Rangers vs New York Mets Prediction – 9/12/2025
The Texas Rangers will visit the New York Mets in the opening game of a three-game series on Friday night. Both of these teams are in tight Wild Card races heading down the stretch of the regular season. Which of these clubs will get a much-needed wih in this game? Here, I attempt to answer that question while providing you with my Rangers vs Mets prediction for this important game.
Our Rangers vs Mets Pick
- Pick: Texas Rangers moneyline
- Confidence: 3/5
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Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Texas Rangers vs New York Mets
- Date & Time: Friday, September 12, 2025, 7:10 p.m. ET
- Starting Pitchers: Jacob deGrom vs Jonah Tong
- Stadium: Citi Field, Queens, New York
- Broadcast: MLBN
Key Storylines
- Jacob deGrom returns to Queens to face his former team with elite run prevention and strikeout rates. He gives Texas the clear edge on the mound in the opener.
- The Mets have hit for better power this year, but their recent form has been poor. New York was swept over four games by the Philadelphia Phillies in their last series and it is hard to come back from that mentally when you look at the standings and reside where the Mets do.
- New York has been outstanding at home, yet a frontline ace can mute a power-heavy order for a night.
Pitching matchup
Jacob deGrom has been dealing in 2025 with an 11-7 record, a 2.78 ERA, and 169 strikeouts in 155.2 innings. His WHIP sits at 0.93 and his fastball-slider combo has produced elite swing-and-miss rates all season. His command lowers traffic on the basepaths and his familiarity with Citi Field should help him manage New York’s middle-of-the-order threats.
Jonah Tong has shown promise and bat-missing ability for the Mets this season. But his major-league sample is tiny at 11 innings. He has the stuff to surprise in short bursts, though extended exposure to a disciplined Texas lineup raises the risk of crooked numbers the second time through.
Recent team streaks
These teams are moving in opposite directions going into this contest. The Rangers have won four games in a row and the Mets have dropped six straight games. New York is running the risk of falling out of the playoffs if they keep losing and they will need to end their losing streak to have a chance at avoiding missing the playoffs.
Best Player Props
| Player | Prop Type | Recommendation |
|---|---|---|
| Jacob deGrom | Strikeouts | Over 7.5 |
| Juan Soto | Total Bases | Under 1.5 |
| Corey Seager | Total Bases | Over 1.5 |
Betting Trends & H2H
- This is the first meeting between these teams this season.
- Texas is 23-19 in interleague games this year.
- The Mets are 23-22 in interleague competition in 2025.
Rangers vs Mets Model Projection
Score Projection: Rangers 4, Mets 3
Win Probability: Rangers 55%, Mets 45%
Final Thoughts
The Rangers should have the upper hand in this interleague matchup. Jacob deGrom will give them a huge starting pitching edge against an inexperienced Tong on the other side. Texas should continue their winning streak here and extend the losing streak of the Mets to seven games.
