Texas Rangers vs Minnesota Twins Pick – 6/11/2025

On June 11, 2025, the Minnesota Twins will host the Texas Rangers at Target Field for the second game of their series. The Twins, currently holding a record of 35-31, are having an above-average season and are positioned for a potential playoff push. Conversely, the Rangers sit at 32-35 and are struggling, though they did get a win over the Twins on Tuesday.

The matchup on the mound features right-handed pitcher David Festa for the Twins, who is projected to pitch around 4.5 innings today. Festa has had a rocky start to the season, with an 0-1 record and a 5.40 ERA, although his 3.98 xFIP suggests he might be due for better luck. Meanwhile, Jack Leiter takes the hill for the Rangers. Despite a solid 4-2 record and a respectable 3.48 ERA, his 4.71 xFIP indicates he may not be as effective moving forward.

Offensively, the Twins rank 17th in MLB, showing average performance, while the Rangers' offense has struggled significantly, landing at the 30th spot overall. With the Twins' strong bullpen, ranked 6th in MLB, and the Rangers' bullpen sitting at 28th, Minnesota is positioned well to secure a victory. The Game Total is set at 8.5 runs, indicating a competitive matchup, but the Twins' favorable odds make them the team to watch in this clash.

Quick Takes Texas Rangers:

Among all starters, Jack Leiter's fastball velocity of 96.7 mph ranks in the 97th percentile this year.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

The Minnesota Twins don't have any same-handed RPs in their bullpen, so Corey Seager is assured to hold the advantage against every reliever all game.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

Josh Jung hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (40.2% — 98th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards baseball's 10th-deepest CF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Minnesota Twins:

David Festa is an extreme flyball pitcher (33.9% FB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) and is fortunate enough to be pitching in the #21 HR venue among all major league stadiums today.

• This pitcher's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Typically, bats like Byron Buxton who hit a lot of flyballs tend to perform worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of flyballs such as Jack Leiter.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Minnesota has performed as the #25 group of hitters in the majors when it comes to hitting balls between 23° and 34°, the launch angle range that tends to best-produce home runs (14.8% rate this year).

• Balls that are hit too low can't clear the fences, and balls that are hit too high generally don't go far enough and are easy pop flies, but balls hit between 23° and 34° are far more likely to become home runs.

Game Trends

• The Minnesota Twins have hit the Run Line in 27 of their last 45 games (+8.75 Units / 15% ROI)
• The Texas Rangers have hit the Game Total Under in 35 of their last 50 games (+19.40 Units / 35% ROI)
• Adolis Garcia has hit the Hits Over in his last 7 away games (+7.00 Units / 55% ROI)

Texas Rangers vs Minnesota Twins Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Texas Rangers 4.7, Minnesota Twins 4.85

• Date: June 11, 2025
• Venue: Target Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Jack Leiter - Rangers
  • David Festa - Twins

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.