Texas Rangers vs Milwaukee Brewers Betting Pick & Preview – 6/24/2024

Texas Rangers vs Milwaukee Brewers Details

• Date: June 24, 2024
• Venue: American Family Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Michael Lorenzen - Rangers
  • Freddy Peralta - Brewers

Betting Odds

Texas Rangers vs Milwaukee Brewers Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Texas Rangers vs Milwaukee Brewers Betting Preview

The Milwaukee Brewers, currently enjoying a strong season with a 45-33 record, will host the Texas Rangers, who sit at a below-average 37-40, in an interleague matchup on June 24, 2024, at American Family Field. The Brewers come into this game as favorites, with both betting odds and advanced projections favoring them to take the first game in the series.

Freddy Peralta, who holds an above-average 4.06 ERA but has been somewhat unlucky with a 3.35 xFIP, will get the start for Milwaukee. Peralta's high strikeout rate of 31.0% is a major asset, though he’ll face a Rangers lineup that ranks 6th in least strikeouts, which might make it harder for him to fully capitalize on his strength. Despite this, Peralta projects to perform well, with an average of 2.2 earned runs allowed and 6.5 strikeouts over 5.7 innings.

On the other side, Michael Lorenzen will start for Texas. Lorenzen sports a deceptive 3.00 ERA but a troubling 4.59 xFIP, suggesting he’s been quite fortunate this season. The Brewers, with a patient offense ranking 3rd in walks, could exploit Lorenzen’s control issues (10.5 BB%). Milwaukee's offense also ranks 9th overall and 5th in batting average, providing further evidence of their potent lineup.

The Brewers hold several offensive advantages over the Rangers, including a higher team batting average and a top-2 rank in stolen bases. This contrasts sharply with the Rangers, who rank 22nd in overall offensive power and struggle in several key areas like home runs (20th) and stolen bases (21st).

Jake Bauers has been the standout hitter for Milwaukee recently, boasting a .444 batting average and a 1.323 OPS over the past week. Meanwhile, Josh H. Smith has been the Rangers' top performer, hitting .412 with three home runs and a 1.474 OPS in his last five games.

Given all these factors, Milwaukee appears well-positioned to start the series on a high note. The Brewers' strong season, coupled with Peralta's pitching and a potent, patient lineup, give them the upper hand against the struggling Rangers and the luck-dependent Lorenzen.

Quick Takes Texas Rangers:

The leading projection system (THE BAT) forecasts Michael Lorenzen in the 24th percentile when assessing his strikeout skill.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.

Via the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the team with the 5th-least strikeout-heavy lineup on the slate today is the Texas Rangers with a 20.9% underlying K%.

• THE BAT X analyzes each player in today's specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Quick Takes Milwaukee Brewers:

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects William Contreras in the 96th percentile as it relates to his batting average ability.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available. Batting average is the most common measure of a player's ability to generate hits.

The Milwaukee Brewers bullpen grades out as the 5th-best in the majors, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 15 of their last 20 games at home (+8.25 Units / 28% ROI)
• The Texas Rangers have hit the Game Total Under in 43 of their last 71 games (+16.95 Units / 22% ROI)
• Willy Adames has hit the Runs Over in 16 of his last 24 games at home (+11.50 Units / 47% ROI)

Texas Rangers vs Milwaukee Brewers Prediction

Final Score: Texas Rangers 3.89 vs Milwaukee Brewers 4.61

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