Texas Rangers vs Miami Marlins Prediction, Odds & Picks – 5/31/2024

Texas Rangers vs Miami Marlins Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 31, 2024
• Venue: LoanDepot Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Jose Urena - Rangers
  • Sixto Sanchez - Marlins

Betting Odds

Texas Rangers vs Miami Marlins Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Texas Rangers vs Miami Marlins Betting Preview

In an interleague matchup scheduled for May 31, 2024, the Miami Marlins will host the Texas Rangers at LoanDepot Park. The Marlins, with a disappointing record of 20-37 this season, are having a tough year, while the Rangers sit at 27-29, below average.

The Marlins are projected to start right-handed pitcher Sixto Sanchez, who has been average according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings. Sanchez has made six starts and 13 bullpen appearances this year, with a win/loss record of 0-3 and an ERA of 6.25, which is considered poor. However, his 5.04 xFIP suggests that he has been unlucky and may perform better going forward.

On the other side, the Rangers will likely start right-handed pitcher Jose Urena, who is considered one of the worst pitchers in MLB this season. Urena has made 14 bullpen appearances, with a win/loss record of 1-4 and an ERA of 3.53. However, his 4.16 SIERA indicates that he has been lucky and may not perform as well in the future.

The Marlins offense ranks as the second-best team in MLB in terms of batting average, but they rank poorly in home runs and stolen bases. Meanwhile, the Rangers have a solid offense, ranking second in batting average and home runs. However, their stolen bases rank among the worst in the league.

THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, projects the Marlins as the favorite with a win probability of 58%. However, the current betting market suggests a closer game, with the Marlins as a slight underdog. This indicates potential value in betting on the Marlins.

Based on the current odds, the Marlins have an average implied team total of 3.90 runs, while the Rangers have an average implied team total of 4.10 runs. THE BAT X projects the Marlins to score 4.82 runs on average, while the Rangers are projected to score 4.26 runs.

In this game, the Marlins will rely on the strong performance of their best hitter over the last seven games, Jazz Chisholm. Chisholm has recorded 8 hits, 4 RBIs, 1 home run, and 1 stolen base, with a batting average of .320 and an OPS of .986. Meanwhile, the Rangers will look to Corey Seager, who has been their top performer over the last seven games, with 6 hits, 6 runs, 10 RBIs, 5 home runs, a batting average of .333, and an OPS of 1.595.

With Sanchez's high groundball rate and the Rangers' power hitting, the Marlins may have an advantage if the Rangers struggle to hit the ball in the air. Conversely, Urena's groundball tendencies may work in favor of the Marlins' offense, which lacks power.

Quick Takes Texas Rangers:

Jose Urena has averaged 96.5 adjusted pitches per outing this year, checking in at the 92nd percentile.

• Pitchers who average more pitches per game are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Nathaniel Lowe is projected to hit 6th in the batting order in this matchup, which would be a downgrade from his 80% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this season.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Nathaniel Lowe has a 98th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (41.1%) but may find it hard to clear the game's 8th-deepest LF fences today.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Miami Marlins:

Contrary to popular belief, fastballs are generally a pitcher's least effective pitch. Sixto Sanchez must realize this, because he has used his secondary offerings a lot this year: 64.8% of the time, placing in the 87th percentile.

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

The Texas Rangers have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Nick Gordon can likely count on never facing a bullpen mismatch all game.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

The Miami Marlins have 3 batters in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Jazz Chisholm Jr., Jake Burger, Christian Bethancourt).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Game Trends

• The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Under in 32 of their last 53 games (+7.90 Units / 12% ROI)
• The Texas Rangers have hit the Game Total Under in 25 of their last 42 games (+9.65 Units / 21% ROI)
• Bryan De La Cruz has hit the RBIs Under in his last 11 games (+11.00 Units / 39% ROI)

Texas Rangers vs Miami Marlins Prediction

Final Score: Texas Rangers 4.51 vs Miami Marlins 4.72

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