Texas Rangers vs Kansas City Royals Prediction – 8/21/2025
The Kansas City Royals and Texas Rangers will wrap up their four-game series in Kansas City on Thursday afternoon. Kansas City has won two of the first three games in this series and they are slight favorites going into this contest. Before these American League teams do battle for the fourth straight day, you can find my Rangers vs Royals prediction below.
Our Rangers vs Royals Pick
- Pick: Kansas City Royals Moneyline
- Confidence: ★★★★☆
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Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Texas Rangers at Kansas City Royals
- Date & Time: Thursday, August 21, 2025, 2:10 p.m. ET
- Starting Pitchers:
- Texas – Patrick Corbin (6-9, 4.45 ERA)
- Kansas City – Michael Lorenzen (5-8, 4.43 ERA)
- Stadium: Kauffman Stadium, Kansas City, MO
- Broadcast: MLB Network
Key Storylines
Pitching matchup
Michael Lorenzen hasn’t allowed a run in his last two appearances and holds a noticeably lower ERA at home (3.40) than on the road (5.06). He will look to continue pitching well at home in this contest. Texas’ Patrick Corbin most recently gave up seven runs over just 2.1 innings against the Toronto Blue Jays. He carries a 12.10 ERA across his three August starts. Lorenzen has the advantage going into this matchup based on his recent level of performance on the hill.
Key Players
Vinnie Pasquantino continued his recent tear for the Royals in Wednesday’s loss to the Rangers. He hit a three-run home run to score the only runs for the Royals that night. Corey Seager and Marcus Semien are key players for the Rangers after they drove in runs on Wednesday.
Recent team streaks
The Rangers have dropped two out of three games in this series and have lost three of their last five games. The Royals had a five-game winning streak snapped by the Rangers in their last game and will aim to get back into the win column today.
Best Player Props
| Prop | Player |
|---|---|
| Over 0.5 Home Runs | Vinnie Pasquantino |
| Over 4.5 Strikeouts | Michael Lorenzen |
| Over 1.5 Total Bases | Corey Seager |
Betting Trends & H2H
- The Royals have a 5-1 lead in the season series against the Rangers this year.
- This is the final regular-season game scheduled between these teams this season.
- Every game between these teams this season has seen nine or fewer total runs scored.
Rangers vs Royals Model Projection
Score Projection: Royals 5 – Rangers 3
Win Probability: Royals 55%, Rangers 45%
Final Thoughts
My expectation for Thursday’s game between the Royals and Rangers is for the Royals to bounce back from their loss on Wednesday. The Rangers are 13 games below .500 on the road this year and I’m not convinced that they are going to turn a corner after winning on Wednesday night. The Royals should take advantage of the recent struggles of Corbin en route to securing a 3-1 series win.
