Texas Rangers vs Houston Astros Prediction – 9/15/2025

The Houston Astros and Texas Rangers will meet in a huge matchup in the AL West and AL Wild Card races on Monday night. These teams are both trailing the red-hot Seattle Mariners in the AL West standings and they are separated by just two games in the race for the final Wild Card spot in the American League as well. Before these teams from Texas square off in Houston, you can find my Rangers vs Astros prediction below.

Our Rangers vs Astros Pick

• Pick: Rangers moneyline
• Confidence: 3/5
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4.5/5

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Game Snapshot

• Matchup: Texas Rangers vs Houston Astros
• Date & Time: Tuesday, September 16, 2025, 8:10 PM ET
• Starting Pitchers: Jack Leiter vs Jason Alexander
• Stadium: Daikin Park, Houston, TX
• Broadcast: MLB.tv

Key Storylines

• Standings pressure: Both teams are fighting both for the division title and a Wild Card spot and there is a ton of pressure to perform on both teams.
• Texas upswing: Texas has stacked wins in September. They earned a sweep of Milwaukee and a statement victory at the Mets in Jacob deGrom’s Citi Field return. Texas is playing better baseball than Houston right now and will try to keep that going here.
• Houston health watch: José Altuve left Saturday’s game with right foot discomfort. He is listed as day-to-day going into this matchup.

Pitching Matchup

• Jack Leiter, TEX: Jack Leiter will get the start for the Rangers in this key contest. Leiter is 9-8 and has a respectable 3.81 ERA on the year. This is the biggest start of the season for Leiter and he will have to be sharp to help his team get a win.
• Jason Alexander, HOU: Alexander’s sinker-change mix has played better as the summer has progressed. He’s 4-1 with a 4.19 ERA and 1.31 WHIP. He threw a six-inning, one-hit gem at Yankee Stadium last month. Inducing ground-balls will be the key against Texas’ power bats.

Recent Team Streaks

• The Rangers have won seven of their last 10 games and took two out of three against the Mets over the weekend.
• Houston won two out of three games against the Atlanta Braves over the weekend.

Best Player Props

Betting Trends & H2H

• Texas holds a 6-4 lead in their season series against the Astros.
• Texas has won three of the last four games played between these teams.
• The Rangers are 32-43 on the road this season.
• Houston is 43-32 in their 2025 home games.

Rangers vs Astros Model Projection

Score Projection: Rangers 4 – Astros 3

Win Probability: Rangers 57%, Astros 43%

Final Thoughts

The Rangers have a slight edge in the starting pitching department going into this game. They should also benefit from any lingering effects from Altuve’s injury. Even if Altuve does end up playing, I think the Rangers will take a close game on the road tonight in one of the biggest games of the day on the diamond.

Jay Sanin

Jay Sanin is a sports bettor, writer and broadcaster from New York. He is an avid New York Knicks fan and is no longer ashamed to admit it. He is also an avid New York Giants fan, and is very ashamed to admit it. His top sports to handicap are the NBA, WNBA and men’s tennis for some reason. He has watched more UAlbany Great Danes basketball than anyone should consume.