Texas Rangers vs Houston Astros Prediction – 7/11/2025

Friday night’s all-Texas showdown at Daikin Park pits the Texas Rangers against the Houston Astros. The Astros enter as home favorites on the moneyline. But Houston is struggling heading into this game against their in-state rivals. Keep reading to get my preview of this game, including my Rangers vs Astros prediction.

Our Rangers vs Astros Pick

  • Pick: Houston Astros moneyline
  • Confidence: ★★★★☆
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Game Snapshot

  • Matchup: Rangers at Astros
  • Date & Time: Friday, July 11, 2025, 8:10 PM ET
  • Starting Pitchers: Jack Leiter vs Lance McCullers Jr.
  • Stadium: Daikin Park, Houston, TX
  • Broadcast: Space City Home Network / CW33

Key Storylines

  • Houston’s struggles: The Astros are 55‑38 for the season. But they were just swept over a three-game series by the Cleveland Guardians. Houston will look to turn things around at home here.
  • Pitching matchup: Jack Leiter gets the start for Texas here. He is 4-6 with a 4.32 ERA. He will go against Lance McCullers Jr. McCullers is 2-3 with a sky-high ERA of 5.82.
  • Season series: These teams have played four times against one another so far this season. They have each won two of those games.

Recent team streaks

  • Rangers: Texas split a four-game series with the Los Angeles Angels before the start of this series with Houston.
  • Astros: The Astros have lost three games in a row going into this series. They lost each of their last three games to the Guardians by two runs or more.

Best Player Props

PlayerProp TypeLine
Corey SeagerTotal BasesOver 1.5
Corey SeagerHitsOver 1.5
Wyatt LangfordHome Run1+

Rangers vs Astros Model Projection

Score Projection: Rangers 4 – Astros 5

Win Probability: Rangers 45%, Astros 55%

Final Thoughts

Neither team is particularly impressive in the starting pitching department heading into this game. I expect a relatively high-scoring game as a result. But I’ll take the Astros to win it at home. Look for them to rebound from their sweep at the hands of the Guardians by winning this series opener against the Rangers tonight.


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Home MLB Picks Texas Rangers vs Houston Astros Prediction – 7/11/2025