Texas Rangers vs Detroit Tigers Prediction, Odds, Picks – 4/16/2024

Texas Rangers vs Detroit Tigers Overview

• Date: April 16, 2024
• Venue: Comerica Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Jon Gray - Rangers
  • Casey Mize - Tigers
• Run Line: Rangers -1.5 140, Tigers 1.5 -165
• Money Line: Rangers -120, Tigers 100
• Total (Over/Under):8 -110

Texas Rangers vs Detroit Tigers Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:

• Texas Rangers - 52%
• Detroit Tigers - 48%

Projected Win %:

• Texas Rangers - 52.55%
• Detroit Tigers - 47.45%

Texas Rangers vs Detroit Tigers Game Preview & Prediction

On April 16, 2024, the Detroit Tigers will face off against the Texas Rangers at Comerica Park. As the home team, the Tigers will look to bounce back after a close 1-0 loss against the Rangers in their previous game. Despite the loss, the Tigers have been having a good season with a record of 9-7, while the Rangers have been performing above average with a 9-8 record.

The Tigers are projected to start right-handed pitcher Casey Mize, who has been deemed below average according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings. Mize has started two games this year, with an ERA of 4.82. He is expected to pitch around 5.3 innings and allow an average of 2.5 earned runs. However, Mize's weakness lies in allowing hits and walks, projecting to give up 4.9 hits and 1.7 walks on average.

Opposing Mize will be the Rangers' right-handed pitcher Jon Gray, who is also considered below average according to our Power Rankings. Gray has started three games this year, with a win/loss record of 0-1 and an ERA of 4.38. Despite his average performance, his xERA suggests that he may struggle going forward. Gray is projected to pitch around 5.4 innings, allowing an average of 2.3 earned runs, striking out 5.5 batters, but giving up 4.8 hits and 1.8 walks on average.

The Tigers have been relying on Mark Canha, their best hitter this season, to lead the offense. Canha has recorded 8 runs, 8 RBIs, 3 home runs, and 1 stolen base with a solid 0.817 OPS. However, the Tigers' offense as a whole ranks poorly, currently sitting at 25th in MLB. They rank 27th in team batting average, home runs, and stolen bases.

On the other hand, the Rangers have been thriving offensively, ranking 5th overall. Led by Adolis Garcia, their best hitter, the Rangers have recorded 12 runs, 15 RBIs, 4 home runs, and 4 stolen bases. Garcia boasts a strong 0.308 batting average and an impressive 0.908 OPS. The Rangers rank 2nd in team batting average and 5th in both home runs and stolen bases.

Given the current odds, the Tigers are slight underdogs with a moneyline of +100 and an implied win probability of 48%. However, THE BAT X projects their win probability to be 47%, indicating a close game. The Rangers, with a moneyline of -120 and an implied win probability of 52%, are projected to have a slight advantage with a 53% win probability.

With the Tigers having a good season and the Rangers performing above average, this American League matchup is expected to be a close game. Both teams will be aiming for a victory to continue their positive momentum.

Quick Takes Texas Rangers:

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) forecasts that Jon Gray will tally an average of 5.5 strikeouts in today's game.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, and more.

Quick Takes Detroit Tigers:

With 6 batters who bat from the opposite side in the opposing team's projected offense, Casey Mize has a tough challenge while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in today's game.

• Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Game Trends

• The Detroit Tigers have hit the Moneyline in 41 of their last 77 games (+9.80 Units / 11% ROI)
• The Texas Rangers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 92 of their last 165 games (+26.78 Units / 12% ROI)

Rangers vs Tigers Prediction: Rangers 4.45 - Tigers 3.99

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