Texas Rangers vs Cleveland Guardians Prediction, Odds & Picks – 8/25/2024

• Date: August 25, 2024
• Venue: Progressive Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Cody Bradford - Rangers
  • Matthew Boyd - Guardians

Betting Odds

Texas Rangers vs Cleveland Guardians Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Texas Rangers vs Cleveland Guardians Betting Preview

As the Cleveland Guardians prepare to face the Texas Rangers on August 25, 2024, they find themselves in a strong position with a record of 74-55, while the Rangers sit at a disappointing 60-70. The Guardians are enjoying a solid season, especially with their offense ranking 19th overall in MLB, indicating a slightly above-average lineup. In contrast, the Rangers' offense is struggling, ranked 23rd in MLB, which highlights their below-par performance this season.

In their last matchup, the Guardians played well and will be eager to improve upon their recent results after scoring 13 runs against the Rangers on Saturday. Matthew Boyd is projected to start for Cleveland and has shown promise this season, holding an impressive ERA of 3.38. Although his 4.92 xFIP suggests he may have been a bit lucky, he still ranks as the 81st best starting pitcher in MLB, which is above average. Boyd's projected performance today includes 5.1 innings pitched, allowing 2.5 earned runs, and striking out an average of 4.9 batters.

Cody Bradford will take the mound for the Rangers, boasting a solid 3.56 ERA and a 4-1 record this season. However, with a lower strikeout projection of 3.8, he may struggle against a Guardians team that is looking to capitalize on any weaknesses. The Rangers' bullpen, ranked 3rd in MLB, could play a critical role if Bradford faces early challenges.

With the Guardians' projected team total set at a high 4.45 runs, they are favored to take this matchup. Meanwhile, the Rangers' implied total sits at 4.05 runs, indicating a close contest. As both teams look to assert their dominance in this series, the Guardians will aim to leverage their stronger season and home-field advantage at Progressive Field.

Quick Takes Texas Rangers:

Compared to league average, Cody Bradford has been granted a longer leash than the average pitcher this year, throwing an additional 4.9 adjusted pitches each start.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Robbie Grossman has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this year (63% of the time), but he is projected to bat 8th on the lineup card today.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Josh Jung hits many of his flyballs to center field (40.4% — 99th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards baseball's 7th-deepest CF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Cleveland Guardians:

Matthew Boyd has utilized his change-up 7.4% more often this year (26.1%) than he did last year (18.7%).

• Because change-ups are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.

David Fry's average exit velocity has declined of late; his 88.1-mph seasonal average has lowered to 78.7-mph in the last 7 days.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), Austin Hedges (the Guardians's expected catcher in today's matchup) grades out as an elite pitch framer.

• Pitch framing is a catcher's ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, "stealing" strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Game Trends

• The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 36 of their last 56 games at home (+9.42 Units / 12% ROI)
• The Texas Rangers have hit the Game Total Over in 20 of their last 29 away games (+12.50 Units / 40% ROI)
• Tyler Freeman has hit the Runs Under in 14 of his last 17 games (+8.05 Units / 21% ROI)

Texas Rangers vs Cleveland Guardians Prediction

Final Score: Texas Rangers 4.44 vs Cleveland Guardians 4.35

Stay informed with the most recent MLB news and our analytics-driven MLB picks and predictions all season long.