Texas Rangers vs Cleveland Guardians Prediction, Odds & Picks – 8/24/2024

• Date: August 24, 2024
• Venue: Progressive Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Jon Gray - Rangers
  • Ben Lively - Guardians

Betting Odds

Texas Rangers vs Cleveland Guardians Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Texas Rangers vs Cleveland Guardians Betting Preview

On August 24, 2024, the Cleveland Guardians will host the Texas Rangers at Progressive Field, looking to bounce back from a tough 5-3 loss in the series opener just a day prior. The Guardians, sporting a solid 73-55 record this season, have been enjoying a strong campaign, while the Rangers sit at 60-69, struggling to find their footing.

The Guardians will send Ben Lively to the mound, who has had a mixed season thus far. Despite being ranked as the 247th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced-stat Power Rankings, Lively has a commendable 3.68 ERA. However, his xFIP of 4.57 suggests he has been a bit fortunate and may not maintain this form. In his last start on August 18, Lively was impressive, allowing only 2 earned runs over 6 innings.

Opposing him will be Jon Gray, who has also faced difficulties this season. Gray’s ERA stands at 3.75, and while he has shown flashes of effectiveness, his abbreviated last outing on July 28 raises concerns about his consistency. With both pitchers being right-handed, this matchup leans into the Guardians, who rank 5th in MLB for the least strikeouts as a team.

The Guardians' offense, while average, has the potential to capitalize on Gray’s low strikeout rate. With players like Jose Ramirez driving the lineup, they’re projected to score around 4.61 runs today, which aligns with their high implied team total of 4.45 runs. Meanwhile, while the Rangers have been underwhelming offensively, Corey Seager remains a key contributor, making this an intriguing contest.

Quick Takes Texas Rangers:

The Cleveland Guardians have 8 bats in the projected offense that will hold the platoon advantage over Jon Gray today, which is especially precarious given his large platoon split.

• Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Corey Seager has a good chance to have an edge against every reliever throughout the game, since the bullpen of the Cleveland Guardians only has 1 same-handed RP.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

The Texas Rangers have been the 2nd-unluckiest offense in the league this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to positively regress in the future

• When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Quick Takes Cleveland Guardians:

Among every team on the slate today, the best infield defense belongs to the Cleveland Guardians.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.

In terms of his home runs, Steven Kwan has experienced some positive variance this year. His 17.6 HR per 600 plate appearances figure has been significantly inflated relative to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 7.2.

• xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.

The 5.9% Barrel% of the Cleveland Guardians makes them the #29 team in the league this year by this standard.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Game Trends

• The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 36 of their last 56 games at home (+9.42 Units / 12% ROI)
• The Texas Rangers have hit the Game Total Over in 19 of their last 26 away games (+13.60 Units / 48% ROI)
• Josh Naylor has hit the Runs Over in 8 of his last 11 games at home (+7.50 Units / 68% ROI)

Texas Rangers vs Cleveland Guardians Prediction

Final Score: Texas Rangers 4.97 vs Cleveland Guardians 4.61

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