Texas Rangers vs Cleveland Guardians Betting Pick & Preview – 8/23/2024

• Date: August 23, 2024
• Venue: Progressive Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Nathan Eovaldi - Rangers
  • Tanner Bibee - Guardians

Betting Odds

Texas Rangers vs Cleveland Guardians Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Texas Rangers vs Cleveland Guardians Betting Preview

As the Cleveland Guardians prepare to host the Texas Rangers on August 23, 2024, they find themselves in a favorable position in the American League standings. With a record of 73-54, the Guardians are enjoying a solid season, while the Rangers sit at 59-69, struggling to find consistency. This game marks the first in a series between these two teams, adding a layer of intrigue as the Guardians look to capitalize on their home-field advantage at Progressive Field.

In their most recent outing, the Guardians struggled against the New York Yankees and will look to turn things around with Tanner Bibee projected to take the mound. Bibee, currently ranked as the 37th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced-stat Power Rankings, boasts a commendable 10-5 record and a stellar ERA of 3.33. His ability to average just 2.2 earned runs allowed per game is a positive indicator, though his projections show some concern with 4.9 hits and 1.4 walks allowed on average, which could present challenges against the Rangers' lineup.

On the opposing side, Nathan Eovaldi is set to start for Texas. Eovaldi, ranked 60th among starting pitchers, has had a decent season with an 8-7 record and a 3.76 ERA. However, he faces a tough matchup today, as the Guardians' offense, while ranking 16th overall, has shown flashes of power and consistency. In contrast, the Rangers' offense struggles at 24th in the league, which could compound their issues against a solid pitcher like Bibee.

Betting odds reflect the Guardians' status as favorites, with a moneyline of -140 and an implied team total of 3.98 runs. With the Rangers' low implied team total of 3.52 runs, the Guardians seem well-positioned to leverage their strengths and take control of this series opener.

Quick Takes Texas Rangers:

Out of all SPs, Nathan Eovaldi's fastball velocity of 94.9 mph grades out in the 83rd percentile this year.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Wyatt Langford is projected to hit 7th in the batting order today, which would be a downgrade from his 59% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this year.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

It may be smart to expect better results for the Texas Rangers offense the rest of the season, given that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) sees them as the 2nd-unluckiest offense in the majors this year.

• When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Quick Takes Cleveland Guardians:

Tanner Bibee projects for 16.5 outs today, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.

Will Brennan has been cold of late, with his seasonal exit velocity of 87.2-mph dropping to 79.2-mph in the past week's worth of games.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Cleveland Guardians' bullpen grades out as the 10th-best out of all teams in Major League Baseball.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 27 of their last 41 games at home (+8.60 Units / 15% ROI)
• The Texas Rangers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 17 of their last 24 games (+10.05 Units / 34% ROI)
• Jose Ramirez has hit the Home Runs Over in 7 of his last 22 games (+14.00 Units / 64% ROI)

Texas Rangers vs Cleveland Guardians Prediction

Final Score: Texas Rangers 4.14 vs Cleveland Guardians 4.12

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.