Texas Rangers vs Chicago White Sox Pick – 5/23/2025

As the Chicago White Sox prepare to face the Texas Rangers on May 23, 2025, they do so with a disappointing record of 15-35 this season, indicating a tough year. The Rangers, sitting at 25-26, are having an average season but will look to build on their recent success. Notably, Chicago's Sean Burke is projected to take the mound after a rough outing, where he struggled in his last start.

Burke has made 10 starts this year, posting a 2-5 record and a 4.69 ERA, but he ranks as the 298th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced statistics. This puts him in the bottom tier of pitchers, which is concerning given the struggles of the White Sox offense, ranked 30th in the league. Burke's high walk rate of 12.4% could be problematic against the Rangers, who feature one of the least patient offenses.

On the other hand, Texas will counter with Tyler Mahle, who has been having an exceptional season with a 5-1 record and a stellar ERA of 1.47. Despite being ranked 79th in MLB, Mahle has proven to be a solid option for the Rangers and is projected to allow just 2.2 earned runs today.

While both bullpens are struggling—Chicago ranking 28th and Texas at the bottom of the league—this matchup could be influenced by the offensive capabilities of the Rangers, who rank 11th in home runs. With a game total set at 8.0 runs, betting odds favor the Rangers at -185, indicating a strong probability for a win. Meanwhile, the White Sox's low implied team total of 3.43 runs highlights the challenges they face in this matchup.

Quick Takes Texas Rangers:

Tyler Mahle is an extreme groundball pitcher (42.5% GB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT), which should make him somewhat immune to the dangers of pitching in Guaranteed Rate Field — the #5 HR venue in Major League Baseball — in today's game.

• This pitcher's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-expected performance.

Despite posting a .243 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Joc Pederson has suffered from bad luck given the .102 disparity between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .345.

• Players that are underperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Overs if the lines are too heavily weighing the unlucky, to-date underperformance.

It may be wise to expect better results for the Texas Rangers offense going forward, given that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes they are the unluckiest offense in Major League Baseball this year.

• When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Quick Takes Chicago White Sox:

Considering the 1.57 disparity between Sean Burke's 6.19 K/9 and his 7.76 estimated true talent K/9 (via the leading projection system, THE BAT), it's safe to say he's been one of the unluckiest pitchers in baseball this year as it relates to strikeouts and should perform better in future games.

• Pitchers that are underperforming should be expected to pitch better going forward, which can create value on K prop Overs if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date underperformance.

Andrew Vaughn has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this year (87% of the time), but he is projected to hit 7th in the batting order today.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

The Chicago White Sox bullpen projects as the 3rd-worst in the league, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Chicago White Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 18 of their last 24 games at home (+11.45 Units / 39% ROI)
• The Texas Rangers have hit the Game Total Under in 26 of their last 35 games (+17.10 Units / 44% ROI)
• Joc Pederson has hit the Hits Under in 17 of his last 25 games (+12.35 Units / 49% ROI)

Texas Rangers vs Chicago White Sox Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Texas Rangers 5.38, Chicago White Sox 3.89

• Date: May 23, 2025
• Venue: Guaranteed Rate Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Tyler Mahle - Rangers
  • Sean Burke - White Sox

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