Texas Rangers vs Boston Red Sox Prediction & Picks 8/14/2024

Texas Rangers vs Boston Red Sox Details

• Date: August 14, 2024
• Venue: Fenway Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Dane Dunning - Rangers
  • Tanner Houck - Red Sox

Betting Odds

Texas Rangers vs Boston Red Sox Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Texas Rangers vs Boston Red Sox Betting Preview

On August 14, 2024, the Boston Red Sox will host the Texas Rangers at Fenway Park for the third game of their series. The Red Sox are currently 63-55, enjoying an above-average season, while the Rangers sit at 55-65, having struggled throughout the year. The teams faced off yesterday, with Boston coming out on top in a decisive 9-4 victory, further solidifying their standing in the American League.

Tanner Houck is projected to take the mound for the Red Sox, and he comes into the game ranked as the 42nd best starting pitcher in MLB, a notable accomplishment among approximately 350 pitchers. Despite an 8-8 record, Houck has maintained an impressive ERA of 3.02 this season. However, advanced metrics indicate he may have been a bit fortunate, as he also carries a 3.71 SIERA, suggesting potential regression. His average projections for this matchup include pitching 5.8 innings and allowing 2.7 earned runs, though he has struggled with giving up hits and walks.

Dane Dunning will start for the Rangers, and while he has made 12 starts this season, his 4.77 ERA and a 4-7 record indicate that he has had difficulties keeping runs off the board. His advanced statistics project him to pitch only 4.3 innings, surrendering 2.6 earned runs, which could be problematic against a Red Sox offense that ranks 4th in the league.

THE BAT X projects the Red Sox as a clear favorite for this matchup, with an implied team total of 5.23 runs, while the Rangers are expected to score around 4.27 runs. Given the Red Sox's robust offensive capabilities and Houck's solid season, they appear well-positioned to claim another victory over the struggling Rangers, who have the 25th ranked offense overall.

Quick Takes Texas Rangers:

Out of all the teams today, the 3rd-best infield defense is that of the the Texas Rangers.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.

Wyatt Langford is projected to hit 7th in the batting order in today's game, which would be a downgrade from his 62% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this season.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

It may be best to expect stronger performance for the Texas Rangers offense in future games, given that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) views them as the 2nd-unluckiest offense in the league this year.

• When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Quick Takes Boston Red Sox:

Compared to the average hurler, Tanner Houck has been given a longer leash than the average pitcher this year, recording an additional 4.8 adjusted pitches each start.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Ceddanne Rafaela has been cold of late, with his seasonal exit velocity of 86.3-mph dropping to 80.2-mph over the last week.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Boston Red Sox' bullpen projects as the 8th-worst out of all the teams in the majors.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 47 of their last 74 games (+21.60 Units / 26% ROI)
• The Texas Rangers have hit the Game Total Over in 14 of their last 20 away games (+9.70 Units / 45% ROI)
• Jonah Heim has hit the Runs Under in 9 of his last 10 away games (+7.25 Units / 35% ROI)

Texas Rangers vs Boston Red Sox Prediction

Final Score: Texas Rangers 4.65 vs Boston Red Sox 4.92

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