Texas Rangers vs Boston Red Sox Prediction, Odds & Picks – 8/12/2024

Texas Rangers vs Boston Red Sox Details

• Date: August 12, 2024
• Venue: Fenway Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Tyler Mahle - Rangers
  • Brayan Bello - Red Sox

Betting Odds

Texas Rangers vs Boston Red Sox Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Texas Rangers vs Boston Red Sox Betting Preview

As the Boston Red Sox prepare to face the Texas Rangers on August 12, 2024, both teams find themselves in contrasting situations. The Red Sox, with a record of 61-55, are enjoying an above-average season, while the Rangers sit at 55-63, struggling to find their footing. This matchup marks the beginning of a series that could be pivotal for the Red Sox as they seek to solidify their position in the standings.

In their last game, the Red Sox fell short, unable to capitalize on scoring opportunities, while the Rangers also faced a tough outing. With both teams looking to bounce back, the stakes are high. The Red Sox offense, ranked 3rd in MLB, has shown its prowess, particularly with Romy Gonzalez leading the charge over the last week, boasting a 1.333 OPS and contributing 5 RBIs.

On the mound, Brayan Bello is projected to start for the Red Sox. Although his ERA of 5.16 indicates a challenging season, advanced metrics suggest he’s been a bit unlucky, with a more favorable xFIP of 3.73. Bello is expected to pitch around 5.5 innings, allowing approximately 2.8 earned runs. Facing him will be Tyler Mahle, who has had a remarkable start to his season, posting an impressive ERA of 1.80. However, his xFIP of 5.70 indicates potential regression. Mahle’s low strikeout rate could be a concern against a Red Sox lineup that ranks 4th in strikeouts.

With a high game total of 9.5 runs, the projections favor a competitive matchup. The Red Sox’s moneyline sits at -135, reflecting confidence in their chances, while the Rangers at +115 suggest they are not to be overlooked. Given the Red Sox's offensive capabilities and the pitching matchup, they could very well capitalize on this opportunity to regain momentum.

Quick Takes Texas Rangers:

With 7 bats who bat from the other side in the opposing team's projected batting order, Tyler Mahle will be in a tough position while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in this game.

• Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Adolis Garcia has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this year (95% of the time), but he is projected to hit 7th on the lineup card in this matchup.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Texas Rangers' bullpen ranks as the 2nd-best out of all MLB teams.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes Boston Red Sox:

Among all starting pitchers, Brayan Bello's fastball velocity of 95.2 mph is in the 86th percentile this year.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Ceddanne Rafaela's average exit velocity has declined lately; his 86.2-mph seasonal EV has decreased to 80.9-mph over the last two weeks.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Jarren Duran has a 95th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (39%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them out towards the league's shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 42 of their last 63 games (+20.90 Units / 30% ROI)
• The Texas Rangers have hit the Game Total Over in 13 of their last 18 games (+7.40 Units / 38% ROI)
• Dominic Smith has hit the Singles Under in 12 of his last 14 games (+9.10 Units / 45% ROI)

Texas Rangers vs Boston Red Sox Prediction

Final Score: Texas Rangers 4.92 vs Boston Red Sox 4.55

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