Texas Rangers vs Boston Red Sox Betting Pick & Preview – 8/13/2024

Texas Rangers vs Boston Red Sox Details

• Date: August 13, 2024
• Venue: Fenway Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Jose Urena - Rangers
  • Kutter Crawford - Red Sox

Betting Odds

Texas Rangers vs Boston Red Sox Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Texas Rangers vs Boston Red Sox Betting Preview

As the Boston Red Sox prepare to face the Texas Rangers on August 13, 2024, they will look to build on their competitive season, currently standing at 62-55. This matchup is crucial for the Red Sox as they aim to solidify their position in a tightly contested American League. Conversely, the Rangers, with a disappointing 55-64 record, are struggling this season and seeking to break free from their below-average performance.

In their last game, the Red Sox showcased their offensive prowess with a walk-off win, continuing to rank as the 4th best offense in MLB. They will rely on Kutter Crawford, who holds a respectable 4.07 ERA this season and is projected to pitch 5.0 innings while allowing 2.7 earned runs. Despite Crawford's above-average standing as the 71st best starting pitcher, his high FIP of 4.86 suggests he may have benefited from some luck thus far.

On the other side, the Rangers send out Jose Urena, who has been one of the least effective pitchers in MLB this year. With a 3-7 record and a 3.74 ERA, Urena has faced challenges, and projections indicate he could allow an average of 3.2 earned runs today. His low strikeout percentage of 15.5 K% could be a concern against a Red Sox lineup that ranks 4th in strikeouts.

The game total is set at a hefty 10.0 runs, reflecting expectations for a high-scoring affair. The Red Sox enter as betting favorites with an implied team total of 5.36 runs, indicating confidence in their lineup to capitalize on Urena’s vulnerabilities. As both teams vie for a crucial victory, fans can expect an engaging clash at Fenway Park.

Quick Takes Texas Rangers:

Recording 14.9 outs per start this year on average, Jose Urena places him the 21st percentile.

• A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.

Typically, bats like Marcus Semien who hit a lot of groundballs tend to perform worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of groundballs such as Kutter Crawford.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

It may be sensible to expect positive regression for the Texas Rangers offense the rest of the season, given that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) views them as the 2nd-unluckiest offense in the league this year.

• When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Quick Takes Boston Red Sox:

Kutter Crawford's curveball utilization has decreased by 6% from last season to this one (12.1% to 6.1%) .

• Because curveballs are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use them less often may see less success as a result, particularly if he uses his fastball more instead.

Masataka Yoshida has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this year (51% of the time), but he is projected to hit 2nd in the batting order today.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

The Boston Red Sox bullpen grades out as the 7th-worst in the majors, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 36 of their last 56 games (+16.15 Units / 26% ROI)
• The Texas Rangers have hit the Game Total Over in 12 of their last 17 away games (+8.70 Units / 47% ROI)
• Wilyer Abreu has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 18 games (+10.20 Units / 57% ROI)

Texas Rangers vs Boston Red Sox Prediction

Final Score: Texas Rangers 5.1 vs Boston Red Sox 5.25

Visit the MLB picks and predictions section for the rest of today's games.