Texas Rangers vs Baltimore Orioles Pick – 6/25/2025

On June 25, 2025, the Baltimore Orioles will host the Texas Rangers at Oriole Park at Camden Yards for the third game of their series. The Orioles are struggling this season with a record of 34-45, while the Rangers have a slightly better mark at 39-41. Both teams are currently searching for a spark, and with the Orioles' recent challenges, they are looking to turn things around against a solid opponent.

In their last matchup, the Rangers secured a victory, extending the Orioles' woes even further. Baltimore has been unable to find consistency, and they will rely on Brandon Young, who is projected to allow an average of 2.8 earned runs while facing off against the elite Jacob deGrom from Texas. DeGrom ranks as the 11th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced metrics, and his ability to strike out an average of 6.3 batters lends him an edge in this contest.

While Young is projected to pitch only 4.8 innings and has a concerning average of 5.1 hits allowed, deGrom's projections show he is more reliable despite a troubling 4.7 hits allowed on average. As the Orioles square off against a resilient Rangers team that is favored to win, they are looking for a spark to change their fortunes. With an underdog status and a moneyline of +125, the stakes are high, but they must overcome a tough opponent in Jacob deGrom to regain momentum.

Quick Takes Texas Rangers:

Among every team in action today, the strongest infield defense is that of the Texas Rangers.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.

Adolis Garcia has been hot lately, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 93.2-mph to 96.3-mph in the past two weeks.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Josh Jung hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (40.4% — 99th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards baseball's 4th-shallowest CF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Baltimore Orioles:

Brandon Young is an extreme flyball pitcher (34.9% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) and is stuck pitching in the #4 HR venue in the league in this matchup.

• This pitcher's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Jackson Holliday is an extreme groundball batter and squares off against the strong infield defense of Texas (#1-best on the slate today).

• This player's skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team's defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

The Baltimore Orioles have 3 batters in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Ramon Laureano, Colton Cowser, Gary Sanchez).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Game Trends

• The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Game Total Under in 38 of their last 62 games (+12.58 Units / 18% ROI)
• The Texas Rangers have hit the Team Total Under in 47 of their last 71 games (+20.00 Units / 24% ROI)
• Corey Seager has hit the Singles Under in 14 of his last 20 games (+7.30 Units / 32% ROI)

Texas Rangers vs Baltimore Orioles Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Texas Rangers 5.36, Baltimore Orioles 4.71

• Date: June 25, 2025
• Venue: Oriole Park at Camden Yards
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Jacob deGrom - Rangers
  • Brandon Young - Orioles

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