Texas Rangers vs Baltimore Orioles Pick – 6/24/2025

The Baltimore Orioles and Texas Rangers face off again on June 24, 2025, at Oriole Park at Camden Yards, after the Orioles took the first game of the series. Both teams are struggling to find their footing this season, with the Orioles posting a 34-44 record and the Rangers sitting at 38-41. Their lackluster performances have led to disappointing seasons, with both teams unlikely to contend for a playoff spot.

In this matchup, the Orioles are projected to send Charlie Morton to the mound. Morton, despite having a rough season with a 4-7 record and an ERA of 5.64, shows some signs of potential improvement with a 3.96 xFIP, indicating he may have been unlucky so far. However, he has been prone to walks, evident from his 10.4 BB%, which could be a concern against the Rangers' offense that ranks as the 4th least patient in the league.

On the other side, Jake Latz will start for the Rangers. Latz has had a solid season in terms of ERA at 3.26, though his xFIP of 4.02 suggests he might not maintain this level of effectiveness. Both pitchers have had control issues, but the matchup could favor Morton if he can limit his walks against an impatient Rangers lineup.

The Orioles' offense ranks 22nd overall, while the Rangers find themselves at a dismal 28th, underscoring the struggles both teams face. With the game total set at a high 10.0 runs, bettors should expect an offensive showcase, albeit from two underperforming lineups. The Orioles' odds reflect their standing, with a moneyline of -135 suggesting the market views them as favorites, yet their record casts a shadow on their true capability.

Quick Takes Texas Rangers:

Jake Latz is an extreme flyball pitcher (37.8% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) and will be disadvantaged pitching in the #4 HR venue among all major league stadiums today.

• This pitcher's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Over the past 7 days, Josh Smith's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 6.1% down to 0%.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Josh Jung hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (40.4% — 99th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards the game's 4th-shallowest CF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Baltimore Orioles:

Given the 1 deviation between Charlie Morton's 5.64 ERA and his 4.64 estimated true talent ERA (per the leading projection system, THE BAT), it's safe to say he's been one of the least fortunate pitchers in MLB this year and figures to positively regress in future games.

• Pitchers that are underperforming should be expected to pitch better going forward, which can create value if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date underperformance.

Ramon Laureano's average exit velocity has declined lately; his 87-mph seasonal EV has dropped off to 81.7-mph in the last 14 days.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

The Baltimore Orioles have 5 bats in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Colton Cowser, Coby Mayo, Jackson Holliday, Gary Sanchez, Ramon Laureano).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Game Trends

• The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Game Total Under in 39 of their last 67 games (+11.33 Units / 15% ROI)
• The Texas Rangers have hit the Team Total Under in 46 of their last 67 games (+22.50 Units / 29% ROI)
• Evan Carter has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 6 games (+6.00 Units / 74% ROI)

Texas Rangers vs Baltimore Orioles Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Texas Rangers 5.52, Baltimore Orioles 5.47

• Date: June 24, 2025
• Venue: Oriole Park at Camden Yards
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Jake Latz - Rangers
  • Charlie Morton - Orioles

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