Texas Rangers vs Baltimore Orioles Pick – 6/23/2025

As the Baltimore Orioles prepare to host the Texas Rangers on June 23, 2025, the stakes are somewhat muted, given that neither team is in serious contention for a playoff spot. The Orioles sit at the bottom of the American League East with a disappointing 33-44 record, while the Rangers are hovering around .500 with a 38-40 mark in the AL West.

Both teams are projected to start left-handed pitchers: Trevor Rogers for the Orioles and Patrick Corbin for the Rangers. While Rogers has a solid ERA of 3.12, his advanced stats suggest he has been a bit fortunate this season. The projections indicate he may struggle in this matchup, especially considering the Orioles' lackluster offense, which ranks 21st in MLB.

Corbin, on the other hand, has started 13 games this year with a slightly higher ERA of 3.91, but both pitchers are considered among the less effective in the league according to Power Rankings. Yet, Corbin's projections indicate he could allow around 3.3 earned runs today, which is slightly worse than what Rogers is expected to yield.

When it comes to batting, the Rangers' offense ranks a dismal 28th in MLB, which may give the Orioles a fighting chance despite their own struggles. The game total is set at a high 9.5 runs, suggesting that oddsmakers expect some offensive fireworks. Additionally, the Orioles have an implied team total of 4.97 runs, which reflects some confidence in their hitters.

Quick Takes Texas Rangers:

With 6 hitters of the opposite hand in the opposing team's projected batting order, Patrick Corbin will have a tough matchup while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in this matchup.

• Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Jonah Heim has been cold recently, with his seasonal exit velocity of 88.5-mph dropping to 82.7-mph over the past 14 days.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

It may be sensible to expect better numbers for the Texas Rangers offense in future games, given that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) views them as the unluckiest offense in MLB this year.

• When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Quick Takes Baltimore Orioles:

Out of every team today, the strongest infield defense belongs to the Baltimore Orioles.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.

Extreme groundball bats like Luis Vazquez tend to be less successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Patrick Corbin.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Baltimore Orioles bats collectively grade out 9th- in Major League Baseball for power this year when judging by their 9.2% Barrel%.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Game Trends

• The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Game Total Under in 37 of their last 61 games (+11.58 Units / 17% ROI)
• The Texas Rangers have hit the Game Total Under in 50 of their last 77 games (+21.05 Units / 24% ROI)
• Gary Sanchez has hit the Singles Over in his last 4 games (+6.05 Units / 151% ROI)

Texas Rangers vs Baltimore Orioles Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Texas Rangers 5.43, Baltimore Orioles 5.45

• Date: June 23, 2025
• Venue: Oriole Park at Camden Yards
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Patrick Corbin - Rangers
  • Trevor Rogers - Orioles

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