Texas Rangers vs Baltimore Orioles Betting Pick & Preview – 6/29/2024

Texas Rangers vs Baltimore Orioles Details

• Date: June 29, 2024
• Venue: Oriole Park at Camden Yards
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Michael Lorenzen - Rangers
  • Cade Povich - Orioles

Betting Odds

Texas Rangers vs Baltimore Orioles Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Texas Rangers vs Baltimore Orioles Betting Preview

The Baltimore Orioles and Texas Rangers are set to face off at Oriole Park at Camden Yards on June 29, 2024, for the third game in their series. The Orioles, having clinched a narrow 2-1 victory over the Rangers on June 28, continue their impressive season with a 52-30 record. Meanwhile, the Rangers, who lost by the same score, are struggling with a 37-45 record.

The Orioles, leading the American League East, are expected to start left-handed pitcher Cade Povich. Povich, despite a win/loss record of 0-2 and an ERA of 4.15, has shown signs of luck as indicated by his 5.58 xFIP. His performance has been bolstered by Baltimore's potent offense, which ranks 2nd in MLB this season. The Orioles' lineup, featuring power hitters like Gunnar Henderson, who boasts a .290 batting average and 26 home runs, will be a tough challenge for any pitcher.

On the mound for the Rangers will be right-hander Michael Lorenzen, whose 4-3 record and 3.04 ERA suggest he has had a solid season. However, his 4.51 xFIP indicates he may have been fortunate thus far. Lorenzen will face a Baltimore lineup that excels in both power and contact, ranking 1st in home runs and 4th in team batting average. The Orioles' aggressive approach at the plate could neutralize Lorenzen's high walk rate, potentially leading to a challenging outing for the Rangers' starter.

Offensively, the Rangers have struggled, ranking 22nd in MLB. Marcus Semien has been their standout performer with 11 home runs and a .865 OPS. However, the lack of consistent production from the rest of the lineup has hindered their ability to compete against stronger teams like Baltimore.

Baltimore's bullpen, ranked 12th in Power Rankings, is slightly better than the Rangers' bullpen, which is 13th. This edge, combined with the Orioles' overall dominance this season, gives them a significant advantage in this matchup.

THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, favors the Orioles with a 59% win probability, aligning closely with the betting markets that have Baltimore as a -150 favorite. With a high implied team total of 4.89 runs, the Orioles' explosive offense is expected to carry them to another victory, continuing their march toward the playoffs.

Quick Takes Texas Rangers:

With 6 bats of the opposite hand in the opposing team's projected lineup, Michael Lorenzen meets a tough challenge while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in today's game.

• Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Nathaniel Lowe has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this year (74% of the time), but he is projected to hit 6th on the lineup card today.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

The 7.1% Barrel% of the Texas Rangers makes them the #24 offense in baseball this year by this stat.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Quick Takes Baltimore Orioles:

The Baltimore Orioles outfield defense projects as the worst out of every team on the slate today.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.

Gunnar Henderson has seen a sizeable gain in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 96.5-mph average to last season's 94-mph average.

• Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

Anthony Santander pulls a lot of his flyballs (41.1% — 99th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's shallowest RF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Run Line in 25 of their last 39 games (+14.00 Units / 31% ROI)
• The Texas Rangers have hit the Game Total Under in 39 of their last 65 games (+15.25 Units / 21% ROI)
• Marcus Semien has hit the Hits Under in 22 of his last 36 games (+15.45 Units / 29% ROI)

Texas Rangers vs Baltimore Orioles Prediction

Final Score: Texas Rangers 4.6 vs Baltimore Orioles 5.14

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