Texas Rangers vs Atlanta Braves Prediction, Picks 4/21/2024

Texas Rangers vs Atlanta Braves Overview

• Date: April 21, 2024
• Venue: Truist Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Michael Lorenzen - Rangers
  • Darius Vines - Braves
• Run Line: Rangers 1.5 -145, Braves -1.5 125
• Money Line: Rangers 135, Braves -155
• Total (Over/Under):10 -110

Texas Rangers vs Atlanta Braves Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:

• Texas Rangers - 41%
• Atlanta Braves - 59%

Projected Win %:

• Texas Rangers - 39.44%
• Atlanta Braves - 60.56%

Texas Rangers vs Atlanta Braves Game Preview & Prediction

The Atlanta Braves are set to face off against the Texas Rangers on April 21, 2024, at Truist Park. The Braves, with a record of 14-5, are having a fantastic season, while the Rangers hold an average 11-11 record. As the home team, the Braves will look to capitalize on their offensive prowess, as they rank first in MLB in team batting average and home runs this season. The Rangers, on the other hand, have a solid offense but struggle in stolen bases, ranking 25th in the league.

The Braves are projected to start Darius Vines, a right-handed pitcher who has shown promise with an impressive ERA of 1.93 this year. However, his xFIP suggests that he may have been lucky and could perform worse going forward. Vines is expected to pitch an average of 5.0 innings, allowing 2.5 earned runs and striking out 4.2 batters per game. His weakness lies in allowing hits and walks, with projections of 4.8 hits and 1.6 walks on average.

The Rangers will counter with Michael Lorenzen, also a right-handed pitcher. While Lorenzen has an excellent ERA of 0.00, his xFIP indicates that he may regress in future performances. He is projected to pitch an average of 5.0 innings, allowing 3.0 earned runs and striking out 3.8 batters. However, he struggles with hits and walks, with projections of 5.5 hits and 2.1 walks on average.

When it comes to the bullpen, the Braves have a strong advantage, ranking fifth in MLB according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings. The Rangers, however, have a lower-ranked bullpen, sitting at 22nd in the league. This could play a significant role in determining the outcome of the game.

In terms of team rankings, the Braves have the best offense in MLB, while the Rangers rank ninth. This suggests that the Braves have a significant advantage in terms of underlying talent. However, the Rangers possess a powerful offense, with 165 home runs this season, which could pose a challenge for Vines, who is a high-flyball pitcher.

According to the current odds, the Braves are the betting favorites with a moneyline of -155, implying a 59% chance of winning. The Rangers, as underdogs, have a moneyline of +135, with an implied win probability of 41%. The game total is set at 10.0 runs, indicating a potentially high-scoring match.

In their last game, the Braves played against an opponent not mentioned in the facts, while the Rangers faced another team not mentioned as well. However, it's important to note that the Braves' best hitter over the last seven games has been Travis d'Arnaud, who has recorded impressive stats in terms of hits, runs, RBIs, and home runs. The Rangers' standout hitter over the same period has been Marcus Semien, who has also put up impressive numbers.

Quick Takes Texas Rangers:

Michael Lorenzen's 2448.9-rpm fastball spin rate since the start of last season ranks in the 89th percentile out of all starting pitchers.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

As it relates to his batting average ability, Corey Seager is projected as the 9th-best batter in the majors by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available. Batting average is the most common measure of a player's ability to generate hits.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Texas Rangers' bullpen grades out as the 5th-worst out of all the teams in MLB.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes Atlanta Braves:

Compared to the average pitcher, Darius Vines has been given a shorter leash than the average pitcher since the start of last season, tallying an -7.5 fewer adjusted pitches each game.

• Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.

Michael Harris II has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (84% of the time), but he is projected to hit 2nd in the batting order in this game.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

Jarred Kelenic hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (41.3% — 100th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the league's 5th-shallowest CF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Over in 38 of their last 59 games (+14.70 Units / 22% ROI)
• The Texas Rangers have hit the Run Line in 84 of their last 151 games (+19.35 Units / 10% ROI)
• Chadwick Tromp has only hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 2 of his last 7 games (-4.15 Units / -46% ROI)

Rangers vs Braves Prediction: Rangers 4.42 - Braves 5.24

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