Texas Rangers vs Atlanta Braves Prediction, Odds, Picks – 4/20/2024

Texas Rangers vs Atlanta Braves Overview

• Date: April 20, 2024
• Venue: Truist Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Nathan Eovaldi - Rangers
  • Charlie Morton - Braves
• Run Line: Rangers 1.5 -145, Braves -1.5 125
• Money Line: Rangers 135, Braves -155
• Total (Over/Under):9.5 -110

Texas Rangers vs Atlanta Braves Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:

• Texas Rangers - 41%
• Atlanta Braves - 59%

Texas Rangers vs Atlanta Braves Game Preview & Prediction

The Atlanta Braves (13-5) are set to host the Texas Rangers (11-10) in an Interleague matchup at Truist Park on April 20, 2024. The Braves, who boast a stellar record this season, will be looking to continue their success on home turf. The Rangers, having an above-average season, aim to challenge the Braves and secure a victory on the road.

Taking the mound for the Braves is right-handed pitcher Charlie Morton. Morton, ranked as the #103 best starting pitcher in MLB by our advanced-stat Power Rankings, has had a solid season so far. Despite his 5.29 ERA, his 4.09 xFIP suggests that he has been unlucky and is likely to perform better going forward. He has started three games this year, accumulating a 1-0 record.

Opposing Morton will be the Rangers' right-handed pitcher Nathan Eovaldi. Eovaldi, ranked as the #59 best starting pitcher in MLB, has been performing excellently with a 2.92 ERA. However, his 3.82 xFIP indicates that he has been lucky and may regress in future performances. Eovaldi has started four games this season, holding a 1-1 record.

The Braves boast the best offense in MLB this season, leading in team batting average and home runs. Their powerful lineup is supported by a bullpen ranked #8 in MLB by our advanced-stat Power Rankings. On the other hand, the Rangers possess a solid offense, ranking #8 in MLB in overall talent. However, their bullpen is ranked #20, indicating a potential weakness.

Over the last 7 games, Travis d'Arnaud has been the Braves' standout player. For the Rangers, Marcus Semien has been their top performer over the last 7 games.

Considering the projections, the Braves are favored to win the game with an implied win probability of 59%, according to the current moneyline of -155. The Rangers, as underdogs, have an implied win probability of 41% with a moneyline of +135. The Game Total is set at 9.5 runs, indicating expectations for a high-scoring game.

It will be interesting to see how Morton, a high-walk pitcher, fares against the patient Rangers offense, which ranks #5 in walks in MLB. Additionally, Eovaldi's high-flyball tendencies may play into the hands of the powerful Braves offense, which leads MLB in home runs.

As the Braves and Rangers clash in this Interleague matchup, both teams will be looking to capitalize on their strengths and exploit their opponent's weaknesses. With the Braves' dominant offense and solid pitching, they have the upper hand, but the Rangers will be determined to pull off an upset on the road.

Quick Takes Texas Rangers:

Nathan Eovaldi has been given a longer leash than the average pitcher since the start of last season, throwing 4.1 more adjusted pitches-per-outing than the average starter.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Quick Takes Atlanta Braves:

When it comes to his strikeout talent, the leading projection system (THE BAT) puts Charlie Morton in the 92nd percentile among all SPs in baseball.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.

Michael Harris II is an extreme groundball batter and matches up with the weak infield defense of Texas (#29-worst of all teams on the slate).

• This player's skill set matches up well with the opposing team's defensive weakness, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Jarred Kelenic hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (41% — 100th percentile) and is fortunate to face the game's 5th-shallowest CF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Rangers vs Braves Prediction: Rangers 4.89 - Braves 5.13

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