Texas Rangers vs Atlanta Braves Betting Pick & Preview – 4/19/2024

Texas Rangers vs Atlanta Braves Overview

• Date: April 19, 2024
• Venue: Truist Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Andrew Heaney - Rangers
  • Chris Sale - Braves
• Run Line: Rangers 1.5 -120, Braves -1.5 100
• Money Line: Rangers 170, Braves -195
• Total (Over/Under):9.5 -115

Texas Rangers vs Atlanta Braves Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:

• Texas Rangers - 36%
• Atlanta Braves - 64%

Projected Win %:

• Texas Rangers - 34.66%
• Atlanta Braves - 65.34%

Texas Rangers vs Atlanta Braves Game Preview & Prediction

On April 19, 2024, the Atlanta Braves will take on the Texas Rangers at Truist Park. As the home team, the Braves will look to continue their strong season with a record of 12-5. The Rangers, the away team, have been having a good season with a record of 11-9.

The Braves are projected to start left-handed pitcher Chris Sale, who is considered one of the best starting pitchers in MLB according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings. Sale has started three games this year, with a win/loss record of 1-1 and an ERA of 4.58. However, his 2.96 xFIP suggests that he has been unlucky and is likely to perform better going forward.

The Rangers are projected to start left-handed pitcher Andrew Heaney, who has struggled this season. According to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, Heaney is one of the worst pitchers in MLB. He has started three games with a win/loss record of 0-2 and an ERA of 6.75. However, his peripheral indicators, such as a lower SIERA, xERA, and FIP, suggest that he has been unlucky and may improve in future performances.

The Braves have the best offense in MLB this season, ranking first in team batting average and home runs. On the other hand, the Rangers have a solid offense, ranking tenth in MLB in overall talent. However, they struggle in stolen bases, ranking twenty-fifth.

Based on the current odds, the Braves are the clear betting favorite with a moneyline of -195, giving them an implied win probability of 64%. The Rangers, as underdogs, have a moneyline of +165 and an implied win probability of 36%.

With the Braves' powerful offense and the struggles of the Rangers' starting pitcher, Chris Sale, the Braves could have the upper hand in this matchup. However, baseball is an unpredictable game, and anything can happen on any given day.

Quick Takes Texas Rangers:

Andrew Heaney has added a curveball to his repertoire this year and has thrown it 8.4% of the time.

• Adding an extra pitch often leads to more success because it makes the pitcher more unpredictable and keeps hitters guessing more, and change-ups are one of the most effective pitches to use.

As it relates to his batting average, Leody Taveras has had some very poor luck since the start of last season. His .262 rate falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .300.

• xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.

Marcus Semien pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (38.3% — 96th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards baseball's 3rd-deepest LF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Atlanta Braves:

Among all the teams today, the 6th-weakest infield defense is that of the Atlanta Braves.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.

Orlando Arcia has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this season (100% of the time), but he is projected to hit 2nd in the lineup in this game.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

The underlying talent of the Atlanta Braves projected lineup today (.331 projected wOBA per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) figures to be a good deal weaker than their .361 wOBA this year.

• Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today's lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren't accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Game Trends

• The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Over in 26 of their last 38 games (+12.85 Units / 31% ROI)
• The Texas Rangers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 87 of their last 159 games (+21.78 Units / 10% ROI)
• Chris Sale has hit the Strikeouts Over in 10 of his last 17 games (+2.65 Units / 13% ROI)

Rangers vs Braves Prediction: Rangers 4.06 - Braves 5.39

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