Texas Rangers at Toronto Blue Jays Prediction For 7/28/2024

Texas Rangers vs Toronto Blue Jays Details

• Date: July 28, 2024
• Venue: Rogers Centre
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Jon Gray - Rangers
  • Jose Berrios - Blue Jays

Betting Odds

Texas Rangers vs Toronto Blue Jays Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Texas Rangers vs Toronto Blue Jays Betting Preview

The Toronto Blue Jays and Texas Rangers are set for an intriguing matchup on July 28, 2024, at Rogers Centre. This American League clash features two teams having different seasons. The Blue Jays, with a 48-56 record, are underperforming, while the Rangers hold a 51-54 record, indicating a relatively average season. This game is the third in their series, providing context for the ongoing rivalry.

On the mound, the Blue Jays will rely on right-hander Jose Berrios, while the Rangers counter with Jon Gray. According to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, both pitchers are anticipated to post average performances. Berrios, ranked #159 among MLB starters, has a 4.08 ERA but a more concerning 4.59 xFIP, suggesting he’s been fortunate thus far. Gray, with a 3.73 ERA, is similarly flagged for regression based on his 4.46 xERA.

Offensively, the Blue Jays have struggled. They rank 23rd in overall offensive talent, 20th in team batting average, and a disappointing 27th in both home runs and stolen bases. The Rangers are slightly better, sitting 20th in overall offense, 18th in batting average, and 17th in home runs. However, they also struggle with speed, ranking 21st in stolen bases.

One bright spot for Toronto has been Vladimir Guerrero Jr., who has been on fire over the last week, hitting .450 with a 1.410 OPS, including 2 home runs. In contrast, Texas's Robbie Grossman has excelled, batting .500 with a 1.250 OPS over his last four games.

Notably, Toronto has a low-strikeout offense, ranking 4th in least strikeouts in MLB, which could pose a challenge for Gray, who has a mediocre strikeout rate of 19.8%. However, bullpen strength might tilt the scales. The Rangers’ bullpen ranks 11th, compared to the Blue Jays’ 22nd, indicating a clear edge for Texas in late-game situations.

Betting lines suggest a nail-biter, with both teams’ moneylines set at -110, implying a 50% win probability each. However, considering the Rangers' stronger bullpen and more consistent season performance, there’s a slight lean towards Texas despite the Blue Jays having Guerrero Jr. in top form.

Quick Takes Texas Rangers:

Jon Gray will hold the platoon advantage over 6 opposing bats in today's game... and will be extra-advantaged due to his large platoon split.

• Right-handed pitchers perform better against right-handed hitters (and the same for lefties). Having this advantage against a lot of opposing hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Wyatt Langford has been unlucky in regards to his home runs this year; his 9.2 HR per 600 plate appearances rate is a good deal lower than his 19.1 Expected HR/600, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

• xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.

Josh Smith hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.9% — 91st percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the game's 10th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Toronto Blue Jays:

The Toronto Blue Jays outfield defense profiles as the 2nd-best out of every team playing today.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.

Over the past two weeks, Daulton Varsho's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 5.8% down to 0%.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Via the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the team with the 2nd-least strikeout-heavy lineup in today's games is the Toronto Blue Jays with a 18.6% underlying K%.

• THE BAT X analyzes each player in today's specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Game Trends

• The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Over in 23 of their last 29 games (+17.45 Units / 54% ROI)
• The Texas Rangers have hit the Game Total Under in 43 of their last 77 games (+10.45 Units / 12% ROI)
• Vladimir Guerrero Jr has hit the Home Runs Over in 11 of his last 29 games (+31.15 Units / 107% ROI)

Texas Rangers vs Toronto Blue Jays Prediction

Final Score: Texas Rangers 4.64 vs Toronto Blue Jays 4.4

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.