Texas Rangers at Toronto Blue Jays Pick For 7/27/2024

Texas Rangers vs Toronto Blue Jays Details

• Date: July 27, 2024
• Venue: Rogers Centre
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Michael Lorenzen - Rangers
  • Kevin Gausman - Blue Jays

Betting Odds

Texas Rangers vs Toronto Blue Jays Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Texas Rangers vs Toronto Blue Jays Betting Preview

The Toronto Blue Jays will host the Texas Rangers at Rogers Centre on July 27, 2024, for the second game of their series. The Blue Jays, with a disappointing 47-56 record, are looking to bounce back after a below-average season. The Rangers, sitting at 51-53, are having an average season and aim to maintain their slight edge in the standings.

Toronto's Kevin Gausman, ranked 73rd among starting pitchers by advanced-stat Power Rankings, takes the mound. Gausman has had an inconsistent season with an 8-8 record and a 4.55 ERA. However, his 3.82 xFIP suggests he's been a bit unlucky and could perform better moving forward. THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, projects Gausman to pitch around 5.9 innings, allowing 2.8 earned runs while striking out 6.0 batters.

On the other side, the Rangers will start Michael Lorenzen, who has been one of the worst pitchers this season according to advanced-stat Power Rankings. Despite his decent 3.53 ERA, Lorenzen's 4.87 xFIP indicates that he might have been riding some luck. He's expected to pitch around 5.2 innings, allowing 2.9 earned runs and striking out just 3.5 batters.

Offensively, Toronto ranks 23rd in the league, struggling with a low team batting average (20th) and a lack of power, ranking 27th in home runs. Their best hitter over the last week has been Vladimir Guerrero Jr., who boasts a .474 batting average and 1.583 OPS over his last six games, including three home runs.

The Blue Jays have the edge as the betting favorites with a moneyline of -140 and an implied win probability of 56%. Their bullpen, ranked 22nd, is a weakness compared to the Rangers' 9th-ranked bullpen. Given the pitching matchups and recent offensive performances, Toronto appears to have a slight advantage in this game, especially if Gausman can capitalize on his underlying metrics and outduel Lorenzen.

Quick Takes Texas Rangers:

Out of every team playing today, the 3rd-strongest infield defense belongs to the Texas Rangers.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.

Corey Seager has been hot in recent games, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 91.8-mph to 99.4-mph over the past 7 days.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Josh Smith hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.9% — 91st percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards the league's 10th-shallowest CF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Toronto Blue Jays:

Compared to the average pitcher, Kevin Gausman has been granted a longer leash than the average pitcher this year, recording an extra 7.6 adjusted pitches each start.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (.367) may lead us to conclude that George Springer has had bad variance on his side this year with his .303 actual wOBA.

• xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.

The Toronto Blue Jays (19.8 K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) project to have the 4th-least strikeout-heavy set of batters on the slate today.

• THE BAT X analyzes each player in today's specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Game Trends

• The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Over in 29 of their last 45 games (+13.55 Units / 27% ROI)
• The Texas Rangers have hit the Game Total Under in 55 of their last 97 games (+14.60 Units / 14% ROI)
• Josh H. Smith has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 29 games (+7.70 Units / 27% ROI)

Texas Rangers vs Toronto Blue Jays Prediction

Final Score: Texas Rangers 4.65 vs Toronto Blue Jays 4.87

Visit the MLB picks and predictions section for the rest of today's games.