Texas Rangers at Seattle Mariners Prediction For 9/12/2024

• Date: September 12, 2024
• Venue: T-Mobile Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Kumar Rocker - Rangers
  • Bryce Miller - Mariners

Betting Odds

Texas Rangers vs Seattle Mariners Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Texas Rangers vs Seattle Mariners Betting Preview

As the Seattle Mariners prepare to host the Texas Rangers on September 12, 2024, both teams find themselves in the middle of the pack with marginal playoff hopes. The Mariners currently sit at 73-72, showing signs of average performance this season, while the Rangers are languishing at 70-76, indicating a below-average campaign. This matchup is particularly intriguing as both teams are looking to gain momentum in the competitive AL West.

In their last game, the Mariners got a win over the San Diego Padres, while the Rangers struggled, leaving both clubs moving in opposite directions going into this AL West matchup. Mariners' pitcher Bryce Miller is projected to take the mound against the Rangers' Kumar Rocker. Miller, ranked as the 74th best starting pitcher according to advanced stats, boasts an impressive ERA of 3.18 this season, indicating the potential for a strong outing. However, he has faced challenges with his xFIP suggesting he might have been a bit lucky thus far. He is expected to pitch around 5.5 innings while allowing 2.0 earned runs on average, but his projection of 4.6 hits allowed and 1.1 walks raises concern.

On the other hand, Rocker, rated 47th in the league, has shown promise with a good projection for earned runs but is anticipated to have a rough outing, projected to pitch only 4.7 innings. His struggles with walks and hits allowed could pose problems against a Mariners offense that, despite ranking 24th overall, has shown some power with the 15th most home runs in MLB this season.

With the Mariners favored at -155 and looking to capitalize on their home field advantage, this game presents an opportunity for them to assert themselves. The Game Total is set at a low 7.0 runs, hinting at a pitched battle. The Mariners need to leverage Miller’s strengths against a struggling Rangers lineup to secure a victory and build some momentum as the season wraps up.

Quick Takes Texas Rangers:

Among all the teams playing today, the 3rd-strongest infield defense is that of the the Texas Rangers.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Wyatt Langford in the 90th percentile when estimating his batting average ability.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available. Batting average is the most common measure of a player's ability to generate hits.

Quick Takes Seattle Mariners:

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) forecasts that Bryce Miller will wring up 16.6 outs in today's outing.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.

Justin Turner has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this year (89% of the time), but he is penciled in 6th in the batting order today.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Jorge Polanco pulls many of his flyballs (39.8% — 98th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the game's 4th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Under in 29 of their last 49 games at home (+9.55 Units / 18% ROI)
• The Texas Rangers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 26 of their last 34 games (+18.55 Units / 46% ROI)
• Ezequiel Duran has hit the Runs Under in 28 of his last 35 games (+12.90 Units / 17% ROI)

Texas Rangers vs Seattle Mariners Prediction

Final Score: Texas Rangers 3.56 vs Seattle Mariners 3.75

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