Texas Rangers at Seattle Mariners Pick & Prediction – 9/14/2024

• Date: September 14, 2024
• Venue: T-Mobile Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Max Scherzer - Rangers
  • Logan Gilbert - Mariners

Betting Odds

Texas Rangers vs Seattle Mariners Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Texas Rangers vs Seattle Mariners Betting Preview

As the Seattle Mariners prepare to face the Texas Rangers on September 14, 2024, at T-Mobile Park, both teams find themselves in the middle of the pack, with only a few weeks left in the regular season. While the Mariners hold a record of 74-73, indicating an average season, the Rangers are struggling at 71-76, characterizing their year as below average.

On the mound, the Mariners are projected to start Logan Gilbert, who ranks as the 16th best starting pitcher in MLB according to the leading MLB projection system. Despite a win/loss record of 7-11 this season, Gilbert's 3.15 ERA and elite projections of 1.8 earned runs and 7.0 strikeouts per game suggest that he’s poised for a strong outing. However, he also has concerning projections for hits and walks allowed, which could complicate matters against a struggling Rangers offense.

Opposing Gilbert is Max Scherzer, who, while a respected veteran, is having a challenging season with a record of 2-4 and a 3.89 ERA. Scherzer's 3.31 xERA indicates he may be due for a turnaround, but he has been projected to pitch only 4.2 innings today, which is not ideal for a team needing depth in their rotation.

Offensively, the Mariners rank 25th in MLB, but their best hitter over the last week, Justin Turner, has been performing well with a .267 batting average and a strong OPS of .983. Meanwhile, Nate Lowe of the Rangers has excelled recently, boasting a .400 batting average and a 1.350 OPS.

With the Mariners favored at -135 on the moneyline, sports bettors might find value in Seattle overcoming their low implied team total of 3.44 runs, especially given the current state of their pitching staff. The matchup appears to favor Gilbert and the Mariners, who look to solidify their standing while the Rangers aim to salvage their season.

Quick Takes Texas Rangers:

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) expects Max Scherzer to have a pitch count in this game, projecting a maximum of 68 pitches.

• A pitcher who is on a pitch count is likely to be pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.

In terms of his home runs, Wyatt Langford has experienced some negative variance this year. His 12.2 HR per 600 plate appearances figure has been deflated compared to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 23.3.

• xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.

The Texas Rangers have been the 7th-unluckiest offense in MLB this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to positively regress in future games

• When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Quick Takes Seattle Mariners:

Logan Gilbert's higher usage percentage of his secondary pitches this year (67.3% vs. 57.9% last season) ought to work in his favor since they are typically much more effective than fastballs.

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

Justin Turner has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this year (85% of the time), but he is penciled in 6th on the lineup card today.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Seattle Mariners' bullpen projects as the 7th-worst among all the teams in the majors.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

Texas Rangers vs Seattle Mariners Prediction

Final Score: Texas Rangers 3.04 vs Seattle Mariners 3.38

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