Texas Rangers at Seattle Mariners Pick & Prediction – 6/15/2024

Texas Rangers vs Seattle Mariners Details

• Date: June 15, 2024
• Venue: T-Mobile Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Nathan Eovaldi - Rangers
  • George Kirby - Mariners

Betting Odds

Texas Rangers vs Seattle Mariners Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Texas Rangers vs Seattle Mariners Betting Preview

The Seattle Mariners and Texas Rangers face off on June 15, 2024, at T-Mobile Park in what promises to be a pivotal American League West matchup. The Mariners, with a solid 40-31 record, are having a good season and look to extend their strong performance. Meanwhile, the Rangers, sitting at 33-35, are having an average season and are keen to make up ground in the standings.

Seattle will send George Kirby to the mound. Kirby, ranked as the 17th-best starting pitcher out of approximately 350 in MLB according to advanced-stat Power Rankings, boasts a respectable 3.81 ERA and has been somewhat unlucky this season. His 3.25 xFIP suggests he's likely to perform even better moving forward. Kirby projects to pitch 6.2 innings, allowing just 2.0 earned runs while striking out 6.3 batters on average, based on THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system.

Nathan Eovaldi gets the start for Texas. Ranked 49th among MLB pitchers, Eovaldi has an impressive 2.68 ERA this year. However, his 3.49 xFIP indicates he has been a bit fortunate and may regress slightly. Eovaldi projects to pitch 5.9 innings, allowing 2.0 earned runs and striking out 7.4 batters.

Offensively, the Mariners rank 24th overall, struggling in batting average (28th) but showing power with the 6th-most home runs in the league. The Rangers, on the other hand, have an average offense, ranking 17th overall and 14th in batting average but lagging in power (17th in home runs) and speed (27th in stolen bases).

Dominic Canzone has been a bright spot for Seattle recently, hitting .333 with a 1.095 OPS over the last week. For Texas, Josh H. Smith has been red-hot, batting .462 with a 1.101 OPS in his last five games.

Betting markets favor the Mariners with a moneyline of -135, implying a 55% win probability. Given Kirby's strong projections and the Mariners' solid season, Seattle seems poised to take this game, but expect a tight contest.

Quick Takes Texas Rangers:

Nathan Eovaldi's high utilization rate of his secondary pitches (64.1% this year) ought to work in his favor since they are typically much more effective than fastballs.

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

Adolis Garcia's 16.2% Barrel% (a reliable metric to evaluate power) grades out in the 96th percentile since the start of last season.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Texas Rangers batters jointly rank among the best in MLB since the start of last season (2nd-) in regard to their 89.8-mph average exit velocity.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Quick Takes Seattle Mariners:

George Kirby's 95-mph fastball velocity this year grades out in the 85th percentile out of all starters.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

The Texas Rangers have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so J.P. Crawford can likely count on holding the platoon advantage against every reliever all game.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

Cal Raleigh pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (39.5% — 97th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards MLB's 4th-shallowest RF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Seattle Mariners have hit the Moneyline in 24 of their last 35 games at home (+9.65 Units / 19% ROI)
• The Texas Rangers have hit the Game Total Under in 41 of their last 67 games (+15.95 Units / 22% ROI)
• J.P. Crawford has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 24 of his last 39 games (+9.20 Units / 20% ROI)

Texas Rangers vs Seattle Mariners Prediction

Final Score: Texas Rangers 3.36 vs Seattle Mariners 3.31

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