Texas Rangers at Seattle Mariners Pick For 9/15/2024

• Date: September 15, 2024
• Venue: T-Mobile Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Andrew Heaney - Rangers
  • George Kirby - Mariners

Betting Odds

Texas Rangers vs Seattle Mariners Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Texas Rangers vs Seattle Mariners Betting Preview

As the Seattle Mariners prepare to host the Texas Rangers on September 15, 2024, both teams are looking to solidify their positions in a tightly contested American League West. The Mariners, currently holding a record of 75-73, are having an average season, while the Rangers sit at 71-77, struggling to find consistency. This matchup is crucial, especially considering the Mariners are projected to start George Kirby, who ranks as the 22nd best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced statistics.

In their last outing, the Mariners faced the Rangers and were able to secure a win. Kirby, a right-handed pitcher, has had a solid year with an ERA of 3.77 and a Win/Loss record of 11-11. He projects to allow just 1.9 earned runs today, which is elite, although he will need to improve on allowing 4.8 hits and 0.7 walks on average.

On the other side, the Rangers will counter with Andrew Heaney. Heaney's performance will be critical, especially since the Rangers’ offense ranks 24th in MLB, struggling to generate runs consistently. While the Mariners' offense is not without its flaws, ranking 23rd overall, they do have a slight edge in power, ranking 15th in home runs.

Interestingly, projections indicate that the Mariners have a greater likelihood of winning than what the betting odds suggest, making them an appealing choice for sports bettors. With a low Game Total of 7.0 runs, this matchup could hinge on Kirby's ability to contain the Rangers' underperforming lineup, while the Mariners look to capitalize on their home-field advantage at T-Mobile Park.

Quick Takes Texas Rangers:

Andrew Heaney's fastball velocity has fallen 1 mph this season (90.9 mph) below where it was last season (91.9 mph).

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.

In the last two weeks' worth of games, Jonah Heim's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 6% down to 0%.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

The Texas Rangers have been the 7th-unluckiest offense in the league this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to hit better going forward

• When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Quick Takes Seattle Mariners:

George Kirby has tallied 17.2 outs per game per started this year, checking in at the 78th percentile.

• A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.

Julio Rodriguez's average exit velocity has dropped off of late; his 90.5-mph seasonal average has lowered to 82.5-mph over the past week.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Seattle Mariners' bullpen grades out as the 8th-worst among all the teams in the game.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• Luis Urias has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 24 games (+8.20 Units / 34% ROI)

Texas Rangers vs Seattle Mariners Prediction

Final Score: Texas Rangers 3.11 vs Seattle Mariners 3.99

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